*****IMPORTANT**** Chief Myers Injury on #3

With this kind of thinking there can never possibly be any progress.
Its all worshipping at the numbers trough.

You know the worse part is that instead of getting the actual question looked into we are stuck here fighting about ridiculous numerical philosophies.

Just totally shuts down any ability to find things out.

Find what out???? You expect stratomatic to produce their proprietary code for you to peruse to try to determine what is causing perceived issues when you refuse to mathematically grasp if it is an issue or not?

Back to the example I posted if you have 10 players the odds of one of them being injured in the first series back is a 50/50 proposition if the injury in on the 2/12. Of those 10 players NONE was injured in the first series back.

If you had 10 Chief Meyers there is a 75% chance that one of them would be injured in the first series back after an injury and once that happened there would be a 13% chance that Chief Meyers would be injured a third time in the next series after returning. This is not even in the realm of being very unusual and actually you would expect to see it quite regularly. In a 12 team league played 10 times you should see this twice. Then once it has happened three times you still have a 1 in 7 chance that guy gets reinjured in the next series upon return.

Wow! and all of what Charlie said whether faulty or not....New question is....do programs ever have bugs in them or are the all perfect excluding the three times Bill had to write to SOM to let them know M. Wills card was incorrect?


And is it POSSIBLE albeit unlikely, could there be the SMALLEST chance....the most infinitesimal chance that something is programmed into the code????????

"Just because your paranoid doesn't mean that ain't watchin ya" ~ John Munch.

And as a footnote to the "rolled craps 6 straight times" and "it came out on even 28 straight times" Any possibility that the casinos rigged something or they have never done that?

See I'm not saying the numbers guys are wrong I'm just surprised at how closed they are to the smallest possibility that it's not random

If the numbers are not random then you should be able to predict your injured players will be injured at a greater rate than non-injured players --- that is players once injured should be injured more often in the future than players that have not been injured. To have a statistical set that is worthy of anything you would need several hundred of each type of injury to see a trend that is outside of normal. Then there would be a basis of which to request Stratomatic in my mind to respond to.

Simple question Charlie is to you not Strat...do you leave room for any possibility that it's a bug or a piece of code written in?

If the numbers are not random then you should be able to predict your injured players will be injured at a greater rate than non-injured players --- that is players once injured should be injured more often in the future than players that have not been injured. To have a statistical set that is worthy of anything you would need several hundred of each type of injury to see a trend that is outside of normal. Then there would be a basis of which to request Stratomatic in my mind to respond to.

Charlie, here is the issue with what you are saying; and am happy to hear an explanation of why you think the way you do, if its not a reverse engineering thing.

1. We don't have to be able to understand and predict the exact nature of injuries to determine if something doesn't fit the model given to us as the norm. WE are not trying to replicate the code here.

2. There is absolutely no correlation necessary between 'early injuries' and repeat injuries. Injuries that repeat multiple times after game 120 are just as valid as game 1.

3. Its pretty clear that you understand the nature of statistical sets much better than I do. What seems to be missing is the logic behind how to actually go about getting the correct set of data to determine if something might be amiss.

4. There is no reason, as mentioned, for a predictive model- all you have to do is gather information on completed seasons- and clue number one would be to look at pitchers who have repeat injuries.

If the numbers are not random then you should be able to predict your injured players will be injured at a greater rate than non-injured players --- that is players once injured should be injured more often in the future than players that have not been injured. To have a statistical set that is worthy of anything you would need several hundred of each type of injury to see a trend that is outside of normal. Then there would be a basis of which to request Stratomatic in my mind to respond to.

Charlie, I agree that there is a way to look at this- but weather a player gets injured EARLY or NOT makes no difference.
Its the number of times one particular player gets injured in a season- could happen ALL after game 100 for example.
All we have to do is look at the frequency of repeat injuries in a given completed season vs. expected number of injuries;
and there are clues to this such as the same pitcher getting hurt multiple times in a season.

One does not have to be able to predict the EXACT model/code that's being used to be able to recognize that something is different than the stated parameters.

The thread was started by NEV about Chief Meyers being injured at the start of a season, that is why I was talking about the odds of this happening at the start of a season. Over the course of the year this is more than 100 times more likely to happen at some point than at the start of the season since you have 158 points where this could start. Once you add the 20 or so players in a league with an injury on a 3/11 you are up to 3000 times more likely you will see this occur. Once you are like Nev and in 200 or so leagues it is 600,000 times more likely he would see this than someone with just a sole league.

***IMPORTANT*** CHIEF MEYERS INJURY on #3In his first game he gets pulled after two abs for a PH....In his second game he gets hurt for the remainder of the game...next game he gets hurt for the remainder of the game...next game he gets hurt for two games.

In SIX TOTAL ABS he's been hurt THREE times. That's got to be pretty unlikely yes?

SALTY WROTE: (ABOUT BEING INJURED 3 TIMES In first 6 At bats:

Well-

there are those who are going to say that 'since its statistically possible, then there is nothing wrong, and its just bad luck'.

I am not one of those people.

You were stating here I thought that having 3 injuries at the start of a season in 6 at bats meant that there is something wrong with the system.


If you want to include the odds of this occurring in a total season the odds of seeing Chief Meyers or someone with an injury rating like Chief Meyers get injured 3 times in 6 at bats:

On average Chief Meyers should be injured 7 times during a season , once the first injury happens the odds of occurring twice in the next five at bats: once in every 583 times Chief Meyers is injured. Since he gets injured on average 7 times a season on average this is going to be one in about every 80 leagues Chief Meyers is used, on a league wide basis using 20 or so players with an injury on the 3/11 you would see one league in four where a 3/11 batter is injured 3 times in 6 at bats.
over the course of the 1000 or so leagues Nev has played he should have seen this about 250 times, on just his teams about 20 times.

So knowing Nev's penchant for posting when these rare occurrences happen and the number of leagues he is in, the number of these threads occurring probably is less than random chance would suggest, so it is more than infinitesimally probable that someone at STRAT is working hard to make sure Nev's teams don't have too many rare chances occur to limit the number of threads like this than it is for the injury to Chief Meyers not to have been random.

See I think you miss the point-
the fact that it happened early was not the issue other than to say he hadn't gotten any chances to have many at bats yet.
Ergo, its more egregious than say after AB 350, and more therefor more likely that A) something might be going on in the code OR B) There 'could' be a glitch in the matrix.

Then lets say its 7 times every 583 ABs as you say-
how many times is he going to get that many ABs in a season?

..and you are neglecting another very important piece of information which is that he CAN'T be hurt as often because of the Catcher rules- so Meyers injuries 'SHOULD' be less than this.

So Charlie you're saying it isn't possible to be a bug or a written code?

Btw I'm not asking how many times it should could would just a simple question.,.are saying it isn't possible to be anything but random at work?

And (I hope this doesn't give you a way to talk around answering my simple yes or no question) did you see about a month ago there was a mistake on M. Wills card... A certain number appeared as a split single or ground out (I think) but game called it an HR... After repeated attempts to notify any of the peeps at SOM the card was finally changed to correctly show Hr...

All that said perhaps Meyers card is printed incorrectly and his injury number could be on #7

See I think you miss the point-
the fact that it happened early was not the issue other than to say he hadn't gotten any chances to have many at bats yet.
Ergo, its more egregious than say after AB 350, and more therefor more likely that A) something might be going on in the code OR B) There 'could' be a glitch in the matrix.

Then lets say its 7 times every 583 ABs as you say-
how many times is he going to get that many ABs in a season?

..and you are neglecting another very important piece of information which is that he CAN'T be hurt as often because of the Catcher rules- so Meyers injuries 'SHOULD' be less than this.

Meyers should be starting catcher I would think, it would be the backup that would be hurt less usually , but overall perhaps Meyers should be hurt less than 7 times a season. And I did not say 7 times in 583 at bats I said 7 times in every 583 injuries, which is still the valid comparison because that is how often this would occur. If he isn't injured 7 times a season but say 6 then Nev should have seen this about 17 times or so on his teams with a 3/11 player.

Further to the point, do you even understand statistics at all or what random means? It is no less likely to occur in the middle of the season than at the start of the season. Injuries that occurred previously have absolutely no effect on the random chance of injury being rolled by the dice 3 times in 6 at bats. All that needs to happen is Chief Meyers gets injured and one in every 583 times that happens Chief will have been injured 3 times in 6 at bats. The only thing that would prevent it is a season ending injury.

So Charlie you're saying it isn't possible to be a bug or a written code?

Btw I'm not asking how many times it should could would just a simple question.,.are saying it isn't possible to be anything but random at work?

And (I hope this doesn't give you a way to talk around answering my simple yes or no question) did you see about a month ago there was a mistake on M. Wills card... A certain number appeared as a split single or ground out (I think) but game called it an HR... After repeated attempts to notify any of the peeps at SOM the card was finally changed to correctly show Hr...

All that said perhaps Meyers card is printed incorrectly and his injury number could be on #7

No I am not saying it isn't possible to be anything but random at work. I am saying there is no data to suggest this is anything other than a rare event. Are you seeing 7 rolls posted that end up as an injury? Is Chief Meyers injured more often than once in every 108 at-bats? Are injured 3/11 batters injured more than 1/108 in the next series after coming back from injury. As I said I will start tracking this in new leagues, but it will surprise me if it turns out to be true, I use 15 game injury risks at almost every position.

I am saying with the number of teams you play you should have far more rare occurrences than anyone, that these occur to you does not mean this is not random, this is to be expected. It is far more likely that someone in the IT office would either decide to rerun a game when they see something rare happen to one of your teams or maybe even rerun games until they get an outcome they know will make you crazy. Once you posted this thread they could run your league until Chief Meyers was injured again just to drive you crazy, that is also possible.