Help with stealing strategy

Help with stealing strategy

Postby JEFFFESPERMAN » Sun May 14, 2006 7:49 am

I have never been able to get any of my basestealers to reproduce their real-life steal percentages during a Stratomatic season. Will the "normal" setting not accomplish this?
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Postby durantjerry » Sun May 14, 2006 9:32 am

I usually use "conservative" or "extra conservative" and I usually get a 75% or better team percentile. I also don't use "steal more". My guys usually don't reach their actual SB totals, but often have a higher %. Going by my experience, you would have to at least use "steal more" with certain guys or use the "normal" setting to reproduce actual SB totals. I once used aggressive when I first started and they ran crazy, often attempting steals of third. I also set the unbreakable record of being CS three times in one inning, so beware of "aggressive" stealing. It was fun though.
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Postby Palmtana » Sun May 14, 2006 11:26 am

Should a D, or even C, rated stealer be set at "Don't Steal" or will the Conservative manager setting be enough to keep them at first most of the time with steal boxes unchecked? Is there such a thing as a high percentage steal opportunity in which a D or C rated stealer will take off?
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Postby cummings2 » Sun May 14, 2006 6:59 pm

durantjerry brings up what is IMO the main element to consider when it comes to the running game, and that is the % of successful steals. The raw number of SB should always be seen in the context of total attempts.

As far as the total numbers not matching. I think settings can help but there are other elements to consider. One is your BP, and to a lesser extent your division BPs. If you play in a division with very low BPSIs your guys are bound to have a dip in OBP. Lower times on base will obviously lower your total SBs. Another element that affects is the opposing battery (pitcher's hold and catcher's Throwing arm) I think it's pretty safe to say that HAL does factor in the catcher's throwing arm and pitcher's hld rate when stealing. So if you are playing in a division that has good catchers, pitchers with good HLD and parks that supress OBP the total number of SBs is bound to be lower. The important element remains, as durantjerry pointed out, to keep the percentile high, ideally around .750.

As far as the letter rating, since we play under the super advanced rules and hence use the detailed steal system I usually don't pay much attention to the letters.

Now, as far as using the Do Not Steal, I have heard several managers I think quite highly of say how that's how they do just that: set the appropiate runners to "do not steal" leave the good runners blank and then go conservative in the manager setting. Their winning record is better than mine so I guess that's the end of that argument, but personally I don't use the "Do Not Steal" setting I have done it but more as the exception than as the rule. Just a personal preference though. For me the "Do Not Steal" goes on with either a good chance of automatically out stealing (the numbers right after the / ) or with high lead chances and low safe steal chances with or without lead (by low steal chances here I mean around 65% -70%).
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Postby Palmtana » Sun May 14, 2006 9:16 pm

Thanks for the reply, Cummings.

So as an example from the 2005 game:

Berkman - (C) *2-5,10/11 (15-7)

He has a [i:84d94b9567]fairly[/i:84d94b9567] good chance of getting a lead and a low chance of an automatic out. But if he doesn't get the lead he is pretty much assured of getting thrown out with that 7.
So when you say [i:84d94b9567]low safe steal chances with or without lead[/i:84d94b9567] you would want that 7 to be a 13 or higher (65%-70%) before you would leave the steal boxes unchecked, correct?

Have you noticed if HAL sends your poorly rated stealers more often if you leave the "Do Not Steal" button unchecked than if you did check it, since that is the way you run most of your teams?
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Postby cummings2 » Sun May 14, 2006 10:16 pm

Good Qs,

Let's see if this helps a bit, I'll go step by step in the SB process the way [i:b2687c4bc5]I[/i:b2687c4bc5] understand it, if I am mistaken hopefully someone will correct me and then we can all learn from this:

-> Stealing 2B step by step <-

When a runner reaches base the first thing that happens is that the defensive manager announces whether the runner will be held or not (more on that later)

Then after the runner announces the steal attempt you throw the 3 dice (one 20-sided and two 6-sided)

Two things can happen here:

1) If the roll is 1 or 2 then you refer to the Balk/pickoff
2) If the roll is 3 or greater you go on with the steal.

We'll go back to balk/pickoff in a sec. Let's assume the roll was higher than 3 on the 20 sided die.

So, then you take the two 6-sided dice and refer to the lead numbers in the runner's card.

To use your example of Berkman 05 *2-5,10,11/12 (15-7)

Let's say that the roll of the 2 dice was 5 and 3 that totals 8. In this case Berkman has failed to establish his lead and [b:b2687c4bc5][u:b2687c4bc5][i:b2687c4bc5]doesn't have [/i:b2687c4bc5][/u:b2687c4bc5][/b:b2687c4bc5]to steal.

However, let's say the roll equaled 10, then the lead has been established and the runner [u:b2687c4bc5][b:b2687c4bc5][i:b2687c4bc5]must[/i:b2687c4bc5][/b:b2687c4bc5][/u:b2687c4bc5] attempt the steal. Remember that by this point the defense has already indicated whether the runner is held or not, this is quite important and I'll go back to it in a sec.

If the roll totals 12 then the runner is automatically out.

Now, before we go on to the steal, let's take a look at the Balk/Pickoff:

With the initial roll of the 20 sided die, if the roll is 2 then the there is the chance of a Balk. You roll the 20 sided die again and if the roll is less than or equal to the pitcher's balk rating then a Balk has been called and all runners advance one base.

If the roll is 1 then the runner could be picked off, you roll the 20 sided die again and if the roll is less than or equal to the second steal rating in the parenthesis, that is the steal w/o lead, then the runner is safe diving back to base and the steal is cancelled, the runner can not attempt to get a lead again on this base. If the roll is higher then the runner is picked off.

Now onto the actual steal.

We'll continue using Berkman *2-5,10/11 (15-7)

And for the sake of this argument we'll use a batter of ('05 numbers):

Oliver Perez: HLD -2
B. Schneider: T -3
Battery sum: -5

Now, when the runner is held you subtract -2 to the steal numbers if the runner got his lead and -4 if the runner is trying to steal w/o his lead. This figure (-2 or -4) is added to the sum of Catcher's T arm and Pitcher's HLD.

Now, let's say in this example that Berkman was being held, immediately his numbers become *2-5,10/11 ([i:b2687c4bc5]13[/i:b2687c4bc5]-[i:b2687c4bc5]3[/i:b2687c4bc5]) [i:b2687c4bc5]The steal numbers reflecting the defensive HLD[/i:b2687c4bc5]

So, Berkman got his lead and therefore he [u:b2687c4bc5]must[/u:b2687c4bc5] steal in this hypothetical case so then you take the 13 and you factor in the battery so his safe stealing numbers becomes [i:b2687c4bc5]8[/i:b2687c4bc5]. He has 40% chance of swiping 2B in this case

-Stealing 3rd and home are a bit different as we all know-


So now with that out of the way, and to adress your questions a bit more specifically,

In my experience, in this example HAL wouldn't try the steal with Normal setting and "Do Not Steal" unchecked. Mostly because, and mind you this is only my opinion -I haven't seen the code or anything like that- , the safe steal w/ lead is so low 8, even if the chances of getting a lead are good HAL wouldn't even attempt to get a lead.

One way I've been looking at it in trying to understand HAL is the following:

Berkman * 36.11% lead/ .5.5% automatically out (75%-35%)

With Hold Adjustments: (65%-15%)
With Battery from example: (40%-0% -I think this figure can not be lower than 5%)

So, from my limited experience [u:b2687c4bc5]and with several exceptions [/u:b2687c4bc5]to the data I've been recording: the "Normal" setting seems to trigger around the 65% safe steal with lead after factoring in Hold and Battery.

So...very looong way of getting to answer your two questions:

I made a mistake when writing [i:b2687c4bc5]with or without lead [/i:b2687c4bc5] what i should've written is regardless of the chances of getting a lead. The sentece should be written as follows:

[i:b2687c4bc5]For me the "Do Not Steal" goes on with either a good chance of automatically out stealing (the numbers right after the / ) or with low safe steal chances regardless of lead chances being high or low (by low steal chances here I mean around 65% -70%).[/i:b2687c4bc5]

Now have I noticed if HAL sends poorly rated runners more often if I leave "Do Not Steal" unchecked? - Yes. Dejesus was a bit of a problem for me in the 05 set. In the 06 set Jonny Gomes [*2-6,11/- (15-12)] gave me a bit of a hard time until I checked him to "Stop doing that!"

Ooooh, boy very very long answer to you ttwo well articulated questions, hope some of this makes sense and is of help.

In case I didn't make sense, let me know, I'll be brief next time :wink:
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Postby Mean Dean » Sun May 14, 2006 10:42 pm

IMO, the most important thing is to set "don't steal if held" on players who have a decent high stealing # [i:b72b1473e5]and[/i:b72b1473e5] a significant chance of getting automatically caught. Getting automatically caught only on a 12 is ok, if the guy has a good chance to get a lead; anything more likely than a 12, and I'd set "don't steal." I'll use this year's DeJesus as an example, since you can look up his card easier. He's 4-6/10 (13-6). The 13 means it's going to [i:b72b1473e5]want[/i:b72b1473e5] to steal with him; the 10 means he's going to get automatically caught a few times, and then you've got pickoffs on top of that. So it's going to send him fruitlessly a lot of times, and I'd set "don't steal" with him.

You don't, as far as I can tell, [i:b72b1473e5]need[/i:b72b1473e5] to set "don't steal" on the players who have a 3 high number or something [e.g. Andres Blanco: 2-12/- (3-1)]. It's not gonna steal with those slugs anyway, because their high # is so bad, unless you set stealing to "aggressive" or "extremely aggressive", which you shouldn't. So you probably don't need to, but I set it anyway; I don't see how it could hurt.

What I recommend is to set stealing to "conservative", your good stealers to "steal more," and like I said, the guys with significant automatic caught stealing chances to "don't steal if held." ("Good stealer" here defined as a high # of 13 or more, and either a) no automatic CS, or b) an automatic CS only on 12, along with a good chance of a lead.) That will give you an excellent SB%, while still stealing enough to avoid DPs and keep things moving.

So that's what I do. I don't think the low # enters into it, because if it's terrible, then "conservative" should make sure that the player never steals unless he has a lead. Berkman is an interesting case. With an automatic CS of 11, I wouldn't set him to "steal more"... but his chance of getting a lead is good enough that in his case, I'd make an exception to my normal rule and I wouldn't set him to "don't steal" either, I'd just leave him alone.
Mean Dean
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Postby cristano11 » Sun Feb 24, 2008 12:02 pm

cummings says... "So, from my limited experience and with several exceptions to the data I've been recording: the "Normal" setting seems to trigger around the 65% safe steal with lead after factoring in Hold and Battery"

does anyone know HALs hold logic? as in, i read that HAL always holds * baserunners... does anyone know HALs logic for holding other baserunners? as in, is it based on some percentage of "good lead", battery adjusted, etc? or is it just based on the first number in parenthesis?
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Postby frog17 » Wed Mar 19, 2008 1:23 pm

I don't know the logic for holding non* baserunners for certain, but I assumed that pitchers simply did not hold those base runners. If you look at those guy's numbers, they aren't worth holding anyway.

As for a base stealing strategy, I generally set base stealing on extra conservative and check my base runners that would have high percentages as steal more. You have to be careful with this though. I haven't played any of the 200x games in a while but in ATG there are some A & B rated base stealers who in my mind should have that rating. Either, they do not get leads that often or they do not have that high of a number when getting a lead. In short make sure you double-check that part of the card before checking any boxes. This should help you get a high stealing %, and minimize your risk of pointless outs.
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