Hit and Run

Is the Hit and Run

Total votes : 0

Hit and Run

Postby cummings2 » Thu Dec 08, 2005 3:32 am

I am currently running an experiment team on using the Hit and Run more effectively.

After the initial getting used to and finding the most optimal way I've found so far I am finally starting to find a certain workable pattern. I guess the finding of such experiment will be posted once the entire season is over and the data is through 162 games...ideally I'd like to run another 162 games with a similar roster to find more conclusive patterns but with ADs it's always a problem.

Anyway, the question and reason for this thread.

what is the most ammount of Hits off H/R Plays, H/Rs attempted and Moving runners over you've either seen in leagues of yours and/or you've had in teams you've ran. Also of the same teams if you could list the Stolen Bases and caught stealing would be great.

I guess it would be easier if we could gather the links to those teams for all to share and analyze but I understand if some players feel a bit reluctant to do so.
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Postby cummings2 » Thu Dec 08, 2005 1:39 pm

Something like this. After game 114:

H&R: 18
Att: 56
ADV: 36
SB: 158
CS: 52
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Postby 1crazycanuk » Fri Dec 09, 2005 1:21 am

How do you know if there WAS a hit and run?
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Postby MARCPELLETIER » Fri Dec 09, 2005 1:23 am

I voted useful, but my choice hesitated between useful and useless. I'd say it is something in between.

I remembered, in may or june, there was one team who relied heavily on hit and run, and it ran a good season, but not exceptional---perhaps 87-75, if I recall correctly.

I think there are many things to consider;

First, as with all the options, I think that Hal (the computer) is too liberal with this option as well. If you select "agressive" H-R in the managerial settings, then Hal will go nuts with the H-R, even in cases where it shouldn't use the strategy.

Related to this point, there is also the fact that you don't control the use of this strategy. If you're trailing by 4 runs, you would prefer to hold everything back and wait for the slightly possible grand slam, but Hal won't do this. It is my opinion that Hal will use the H-R much without considering the game situation.

Also, I noticed that Hal will on occasion uses the H-R even with a runner on second. The way the rules are settled in Strat, this is a very risky move, because if the hitter misses, the runner on second going to third is automatically out unless he gets his lead.

In any case, if you want to give a shot, here is my take:

First, you still need clean-up hitters and you still need players that get on-base. Don't make the mistake (if you wish to win ballgames) of selecting nine weak hitters simply because of the concept. Homeruns by your clean-up hitter will always win ballgames, whatever the stadium. The ideal draft of a team built on the hit-and-run strategy is composed of very solid starting pitchers, at least one very strong closer (given that the h-r strategy is a one-run strategy), probably another solid reliever, at least one clean-up, another very solid hitter (a #3 type). It is only when you have all these elements in place that you should consider drafting the four-five weak hitters on which you will build your H-R strategy around.

In similar vein, don't go after very weak hitters if you are left with 10M left to spend. Spend the money wisely first, and then, if the set-up is good, go after weak hitters.

So, what weak players you should consider? The ideal type is Izturis. He has perfect defense (ss1e10). He has a *star in his steal rating (*2-5,12/- (17-12)), and his h-r rating is B.

Why should you looking for very good defense? Because the h-r strategy is a defensive strategy--at least in strat, where we don't have ball counts. It is a strategy by which you hope to win with small ball, and to win with small ball means to invest in very good pitchers and in extremely good defense. Furthermore, the weaker the hitter, the greater investment you make by choosing the h-r strategy.

What about the steal rating? Because a good steal rating forces the opponent to hold the runners, and when runners are held, hitters have their hit-and-run rating upgraded by one letter (rating B becomes rating A). Runners without the star but with good stealing numbers (e.g. 7/- (15-6) should be sufficiently good to force opponents to hold runners as well.

As for the h-r rating, B is the best you can get, and in my opinion, it should be the minimal rating to start with the hit-and-run strategy.

In other words, for all players not having a B rating, you should go at the individual settings and turn off the hit-and-run strategy (select "never use hit-and-run with this player"). The only exception to this rule would be very weak hitters with a c rating (Glanville, to take one example). Also, I would turn off the hit-and-run to individuals with good offensive cards even if they have the b rating (ex. Suzuki, Snow).

If you have four five players like Izturis, and if you turn off the hit-and-run to individuals with good offensive cards, then, and only then, should you turn to aggressive hit-and-run.

And even then, in the ideal world, you should switch to conservative hit-and-run for the few games you play against teams with weak pitching. The reason for this is that the hit-and-run strategy turns singles read on pitcher's card into out. So it is a strategy that pays when the opponent pitcher has a few singles on his card, but that costs too much when the opponent pitcher has lots of singles on his card.

Finally, you have to set-up a line-up so that your fast runners are in front of the b-rated hitters, and that slow runners are in front of not qualified hitters.

So, as you see, it will not be an easy task to have a team succesful with the h-r strategy, but it should be fun, and there are several ideal players in the set for this strategy.

To name a few that I see:

Many defensive catchers have a B rating
Erstad (Olerud, despite the lack of running)
Castillo/B.Roberts/Cora/Kennedy/Carroll (Vina for the cheap pocket)
Izturis/Vizquel/Renteria/ (Eckstein being a borderline case, given his defense)
Endy Chavez

Suzuki, Snow, Jeter, Marcus Giles although all B-rated, are in my opinion too good to turn the h-r on.
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Postby MARCPELLETIER » Fri Dec 09, 2005 1:25 am

How do you know if there WAS a hit and run?

Look in statistics. Manager profile. Hits from H-R/advance/out are three of the four outcomes of the hit-and-run (the other being sb/cs)
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Postby cummings2 » Fri Dec 09, 2005 6:05 am

Absolutely agree with your concepts luckyman :!:

I'll go through some of the steps of the experiment:

1st Choice of Ballpark:

I thought it important that I chose a ballpark that allows for good OBP so as to have the Hit and Run come into play, given the limited pool of players I ended up settling for Fenway for this first incarnation of the experiment. The other choice was SBC but the 8 BPSR for Lefties turned me off since I didn't want to limit my pool to only RHB with a B H&R rating though most of the candidates are RH.

2nd Lineup and Draft.

My original draft didn't go as planned I had targeted Castillo, Izturis and Ichiro as "must haves" but ended up only with Ichiro as those three seem to be high picks usually. But I did manage to land several of my other options: Pierre, Figgins, Erstad and Jack Wilson. I ended up with Beltre, Though I had targeted Rolen for 3B but the 'consolation' draft pick was everything I wanted as good solid cleaner-upper.

3 Early season results.

My first lineup cards were made of 7 hitters with a B rating for H&R and 2 stopper-clean up guys (Beltre and Sexson)

Failed and flawed strategy this was. I was getting tons on base but with far too few runs to account for the number of hits (for example 2 runs on 12 hits). Though the settings for Hit and Run were on Normal HAL was using a bit more than what I was looking for, running the play every 1.296 games (or every 35 outs). The success rate was too low and the team lacked the TB to drive the runners home.

This leads me to that very important point you mentioned:
You [u:8a324afd73][b:8a324afd73]need[/b:8a324afd73][/u:8a324afd73] Cleanup hitters.

Beltre and Sexson were my cleanups but it was flawed of me to rely so heavily on two spots in the lineup so that was the first move to make. Also, whether because of bad rolls of bad manging the numbers of several players were unusually low.

4. Changes and Adjustments.

After 42 games I found several very definite patterns that led me to believe that I wasn't just getting some bad rolls, the team design was flawed. Some changes were made in the lineups, settings and Roster. The 'new' verson of the lineup is essentially split in Three segments, the "Triggers", the "Hit and Runners" and the "Cleaners".

The most important element I have found is what I've gotten to call "The Trigger" that is the hitter that has to get on base and get a good lead in order to "trigger" the hit and run play. The ideal candidate for this I think is Pierre since his OBP and good lead chances will help turn the Hitter into an A H&Rer (As you pointed up above), then the second hitter is the weak link that benefits from the execution of the H&R, this is where having Endy Chavez would be ideal for me...but maybe next time since he's taken in this league.

Anyhoo, what I have found is that the Lineup has to be balanced between "Triggers" and "Hitters" that move the man on base to 3rd so that the "Cleaners" can get the job done, either with a sac fly or some extra bases.

I have made changes and settled for 3 Cleaners 2 Triggers and 4 Hit and Runners though I think the best way would call for 4 Cleaners 2 Triggers and 3 H&Rers.

Since the changes all the players are performing in an acceptable range within their cards, the H&R play has been used every 2.851 games(around every 50 outs) the success rate has gone up both of hits off H&R and Succesfully moving Runners over and the SB success rate is at an acceptable .750

It is a very tricky and failry delicate strategy but lots of fun so far.

Now the one thing I hadn't considered and which has cost me several games: The pitching.

I wish I had read your comments before the beggining of the season. The starting rotation is solid if not stellar but my pen has been the weak link accounting for half the team losses and only 1/3 the wins. My closer is Isringhausen but even he has struggled.

Will keep updating on some of these findings, maybe next time I'll strike the balance that allows for better pitching.

The question at the end of the long post:

Would you say that my logic behind choosing Fenway was wrong. That is Do you think that the H&R play works better in a Petco enviroment or in a Fenway enviroment?
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Postby MARCPELLETIER » Fri Dec 09, 2005 7:17 am

yeah, while Fenway is not Coors, it has perhaps too many homeruns for building a H-R team advantageously. That being said, I entirely agree with your analysis: you need the most singles out of the stadium. So in my opinion, the perfect stadium would be SBC Park.

As for your team, you have three players that, according to my ratings, are among the worst buys this year: Beltre, J.Wilson, and Suzuki.

While TSN made an extraordinary job this year in rating players appropriately, these three players are among the few that look bad, at least according to my ratings, particularly J.Wilson. So you perhaps ended up with a selection of players that was difficut to win with.
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Postby cummings2 » Fri Dec 09, 2005 10:24 pm

Forgot to ask a question about this:

[quote:b97bd5f4e1="marcus wilby"] The reason for this is that the hit-and-run strategy turns singles read on pitcher's card into out. So it is a strategy that pays when the opponent pitcher has a few singles on his card, but that costs too much when the opponent pitcher has lots of singles on his card.[/quote:b97bd5f4e1]

I was operating under the impression that a hitter with an A H&R rating has:

8 (/36) chances to get a hit
23 to Advance the Runner
6 to Fail to make contact.

If contact is not made then the runner is left to steal regardless of if there was a good lead or not.

Now on the pitcher's card side of things I thought that the H&R turns Strikeouts and walks into gb(1B)C, SI and DO are turned to gb(2B)B. I am not sure how I got this impression but off the top of my head this is how I thought it operated.

Also, about holding the runners in: I keep getting confused on whether the hitter is upgraded from B to A when the infield is in or when the runner is held on base.

But according to the rules:

19.3 If the defense is playing the infield in [b:b97bd5f4e1]or[/b:b97bd5f4e1] if a runner is being held on base, then the batter's hit-and-run rating is improved one grade.

In the Advanced game, a runner may be held only when the infield is playing back.

However, in Super Advanced play, any runner or combination of runners also may be held on base when the infield is positioned as Corners In.

I guess that this brings me back to my eternal question of SOM on line, are we playing with Advanced Rules or Super Advanced Rules?
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Postby MARCPELLETIER » Sun Dec 11, 2005 10:05 pm

we're playing under the super-advance rules, and everything that you wrote is, to what I know, true---although I'm not sure about doubles on pitcher's card turning into outs. I know singles are, I'm not sure about doubles.

In any case, what's wrong with my quote?
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Postby cummings2 » Mon Dec 12, 2005 12:35 am

Absolutely nothing wrong with your quote.

The quote wasn't to point out a discrepancy but rather because that particular comment brought to mind a question I have about the nature of the outs that result from the pitcher's card. -That is whether the out is a gb(b) or a gb(c). Either way the result of the H&R in that case is, as you pointed out, counter productive. I was just wondering if you knew whether the out advances the runner or not.
The reason why I ask about it is because there are times that if you add the hits off H&R plays + Succesful adv. of runners the result is greater than the number of H&R attempts. I don't know if a hit off H&R counts as both hit and succesful advance or if the gb(c)s from the pitcher's card count as succesful advances as well.
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