Strategy in Drafting-Who's the top five for 2005

Strategy in Drafting-Who's the top five for 2005

Postby PAULMINICUCCI » Mon Dec 12, 2005 12:30 pm

When making out the initial draft list, it is my experience that most folks go for the stud pitcher or two followed by a special player you want to build your team around Pujols for example, but then it seems like in order to build defense the next players are ss and 2nd basemen. I noted that I have yet to get L Castillo and I have tried him at 4th spot twice, O. Hudson goes early as well, and Everett and Izturis at ss. I wondered if folks would like to share their strategy in doing the draft. Let's say you are in any of the following parks, Shea, Wrigley, Petco or a neutral park.Who do you choose and why? Thanks. BTW if there is a thread on this please direct me, since I have not gotten drafting down and would like any help I can get.
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Postby MICHAELTARBELL » Mon Dec 12, 2005 1:17 pm

There have been numerous threads on this subject. It usually turns into a "my favorite player" thread, which is pretty much what the #1 pick is..


I think it depends totally on the type of team you are trying to build, if you want a pitching team, you draft RJ first, hitting team, draft the hitter you want the worst.

With Castillo, it is my experience that if you do not draft him #1, you will not get him...

I would list the top 5 taken in any draft, in no particular order of preference as ...

RJ
Castillo
Bonds
Abreu
Pujols (maybe)

i would say that you do not have to draft RP's very high, as there are a number of very good one's, so if you miss one, you do not have to worry to much about getting an adequate replacement.
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Postby visick » Mon Dec 12, 2005 1:19 pm

In my experience, since Hudson and Castillo are so good defensively, if I don't have them @ the 3rd. spot, I don't usually get them.

Shea: I usually go for Santana, thinking that everyone else is trying to get RJ.
Wrigley: I usually look to Zambrano or Sheets, figuring they are a good fit for the Ivy.

Any other park...I've stopped putting RJ as #1. I just figure I'm not going to get him anyhow.
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RJ

Postby PAULMINICUCCI » Mon Dec 12, 2005 1:26 pm

Yeah , me too, I have pretty much given up getting RJ, tried him number 1 six times and didn't get him, which is probably bad luck, I mean I have a 50-50 shot aft six tries with 12 picks plus not everyone has him at number 1 but it is still hard. The strange thing is that Bonds, Beltre, Pujols are sometimes left after waivers, it's like you want them real bad or no one wants them, depending on other variables.

I do agree on the RP, I might throw in Izzy or Rivera at 12-15 and sometimes I get them otherwise I just pick them last and list really good guys so I build up my waiver position. I have yet to see a draft where there weren't some good RPs left.

Everett and Izturis are hard because they are so rare ss's with 1 defense.
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Postby MICHAELSCIANATICO » Mon Dec 12, 2005 3:58 pm

I was in one league, where I believe noone believed they were going to get RJ and just did not list him on their draft.
He was left to be picked up in waivers.
I was shocked.
I change my list of players to draft from team to team to keep it fresh
and interesting.
There are a few players I do try to always get like Santana, Abreu and Kotsay.
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Postby bleacher_creature » Mon Dec 12, 2005 4:44 pm

Aren't "2's" at 2B and SS being underrated a little by people? I mean, if you are playing the board game, "2" fielders with reasonable e ratings will do very well.

For example, Vizquel seems like a bargain being a 2e12, and hitting very well vs RHPs (for about $4M).
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Postby CHARLESBELL » Mon Dec 12, 2005 5:53 pm

Another thing to consider is exactly how players are placed on teams by the draft. I used to think that when your "turn" came up in the draft you either got the player picked or if already taken you got the next highest priced player available at that primary position. It's a little more complex than that. Here is what the rules say:

The Auto-Draft is the process by which players are placed onto the 12 teams in your league based on the player lists that each team filled out. The logic is as follows:
If a player was selected by only one team, that team gets him.
If a player was selected by more than one team: The team that ranked that player highest gets him.
If more than one team tied for ranking that player the highest: That player is randomly awarded to one of those teams that ranked him the same.
For each team that lost out on a player: The team receives the next highest-priced player that is the same primary position of the original player, that was not selected by any team.

The rules don't clearly state in what order the ties and "next highest-priced player" picks are made. Possibly this is made based on the highest pick in which a conflict exists, or maybe the logic just starts with the highest priced player and works down, I'm not sure.

Example: If 5 teams select RJ as their first pick, guess what? Not only is RJ gone, but so are the next five highest priced SPs - santana, schmidt, clemens, and zambrano (assuming they were selected by more than one player). If you picked RJ 2nd, then your consolation prize is schilling. So it is easy to see how far down the list the pick you get could be. If you made santana your first pick, and someone else also had santana as a pick (any pick, even the 25th), neither will get him because he'll be given to one of the RJ picks.

So why not pick RJ first every time? The biggest reason is having to build a draft with RJs cost built in. Also, the more teams that pick RJ, the fewer there are to pick up the other top SPs. In the above example, 5 teams picked RJ, so there are only 7 left to pick the others, if you assume that few teams will go after two of them. That raises the odds that you could be the only team to select schmidt, for example, which would mean you'd get him before the spoils are divided among the RJ picks.

When I make picks I often look at who the next few players are lower in price to better position the draft for a good consolation pick.
The worse the consolation prize, the higher I want him in the draft because the alternatives are not as good.

It also takes a special eye to build a roster that is intended to get the first waiver pick. I don't really get the logic behind this strategy - intentionally making numerous picks you don't expect to get so you can get one sure pick? The only folks who should really try this are those that are really, really, good at reading other teams and can fashion together a competitive team out of whatever dregs happen to left in the FA pool after the draft. Personally I'm usually happy when I get a low waiver pick because it means I got a lot of the picks I wanted. I might kick myself that I have no chance at JD Drew, who somehow made it through the draft unpicked, but he's just one pick I missed out on, not the five or six or more lost picks it would have taken for me to have a high enough waiver pick to get him.
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Postby Roscodog » Mon Dec 12, 2005 6:30 pm

I'm not sure if i'm reading your message correctly, but If someone picks Randy Johnson and doesn't get him, they don't automatically get Santana? If i'm the only guy who took Santana and I take him 25th I'm still going to get him.
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Postby JdEarly » Mon Dec 12, 2005 8:07 pm

That's the way I understand it, too - "The next highest priced player NOT drafted by another team will be drafted to your team." I also believe that if you have Santana picked in the first round, and someone else has him in the second or third, you get him, and the team with the lower draft position for him gets the consolation prize (which by that time would probably be Dave Bush).

Now, SacYankees, I believe that [i:7ee65a1d43]Chone Figgins[/i:7ee65a1d43] should be the first player on any draft card that you expect to earn free credits from. I will ride that horse till he dies, and then stuff him and use him as a good luck charm... or something.

Okay, seriously, the best way that I have found to set up a draft list is to worry about your home park first. You're playing in Wrigley? Manny Ramirez and Carlos Zambrano should both be very high on your list. Shea? Santana and Edmonds, possibly J.D. Drew (in my experience), although guys like Glendon Rusch, Mark Mulder, and Jeromy Burnitz have excelled way past the face value of their card for me in that park.

You always want strong defense (not just up the middle, either), pitchers with low WHIP, and hitters with high OBP. A lot of people tend to favor pitcher's parks, so you can't play station to station baseball a lot of the time - small ball is where it's at. Bonds is left out there for the taking a lot of the time because of his lofty price tag and people not wanting to risk being weak at other positions because of it, but Berkman, Abreu, Edmonds, Rolen, Helton, Drew, even J.T. Snow... those guys tend to get picked up because they can all get on base enough to score a serious number of runs.

When I started playing the game on-line with these guys, name value meant a lot to me. Not so much anymore - I would be afraid for any team that started Neifi Perez at 2B with any sort of regularity in real life, but the guy is a bargain with this set of cards. If the Giants signed Neal Cotts, I wouldn't even flinch, but in Strat I don't feel comfortable unless I have him down in the bullpen. When you're setting up your draft list, you have to toss sentimentality out the window - you can't have a favorite player, you have to have a favorite card for every situation. Does that make sense?
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Strategy in Drafting-Who's the top five for 2005

Postby 2cityfan » Mon Dec 12, 2005 11:33 pm

:roll: I agree you want to draft according to your ball park.. If you use Petco, your first 3 picks should be top starters (there are so few good starters, and by drafting 3, you will probably get 2... then go for infield defense and a good leadoff hitter.... also draft hitters with high OBP and who can run... you can fill your bullpen in Waivers.. there are lots of good relievers...

If you select an hitter's park.. go for a top leadoff hitter first.. Abreu is the best #1 hitter in Coors... then fill out the rest of your offense... I have seen a lot of Coors teams lead the league in HR's, but are middle of the pack in OBP because they don't get enough table setters...

Good Luck Sacremento Yankees..
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