[quote:ff456b3c46]Is there any mention in regards to the nature of the outs the hitters give so as to determine if they're the "best" i.e. flyballs, groundouts, DPs... or is it the simple AVG/OPS way.
[/quote:ff456b3c46]
Partly, yes. They disentangle Ks from outs.
Their conclusion, though, go against common knowledge: the #2 slot is the one which benefits most from having Ks instead of outs, whereas the bottom of the line-up (#7-#9) are the ones that benefit most from having outs instead of Ks. (going here by memory, will have to confirm)
The Book
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by MARCPELLETIER » Thu Mar 16, 2006 11:13 pm
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by Mean Dean » Fri Mar 17, 2006 11:39 am
That again makes perfect sense. It's already generally acknowledged that it's crucial for the #2 batter to avoid DPs, and K's accomplish that. And later in the lineup, you have weaker overall hitters, so that's where "productive outs" are more needed. I'd also imagine that base stealing and bunting are worth the most down there, too.
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by cummings2 » Fri Mar 17, 2006 4:24 pm
I understand that and I agree with it entirely, but then again...
In baseball, not strat, obviously, it is often refered to as a "good" thing for the pitcher to have first base open against the better hitters with men in scoring position so as to be able to pitch around them -in this case having a man on 2B with 1 out as the result of the leadoff getting OB and the "productive out" from the #2 hitter.
So, actually having a productive out hurts your hitter batting third since he'll see less hittable pitches but helps the team: The 3rd is then more likely to draw a walk. So, the hitter batting third who is your [i:2215d2531a]5th[/i:2215d2531a] best has two chences: driving a run or getting OB for the cleanup who is a better hitter, either way it's a win-win situation. With a man on 1B it's not so win-win.
Also, since the #2 hitter was supposedly one of your best hitters and the leadoff is ideally one of your best runners, then the chances of a DP are minimized, in which case I would [i:2215d2531a]want[/i:2215d2531a] my #2 to make contact, move the runner, avoid an inning ending DP from the 3rd spot, whose not such a good runner nor hitter (if he is the 5th best).
However, logically and in everyway I would agree entirely...
In baseball, not strat, obviously, it is often refered to as a "good" thing for the pitcher to have first base open against the better hitters with men in scoring position so as to be able to pitch around them -in this case having a man on 2B with 1 out as the result of the leadoff getting OB and the "productive out" from the #2 hitter.
So, actually having a productive out hurts your hitter batting third since he'll see less hittable pitches but helps the team: The 3rd is then more likely to draw a walk. So, the hitter batting third who is your [i:2215d2531a]5th[/i:2215d2531a] best has two chences: driving a run or getting OB for the cleanup who is a better hitter, either way it's a win-win situation. With a man on 1B it's not so win-win.
Also, since the #2 hitter was supposedly one of your best hitters and the leadoff is ideally one of your best runners, then the chances of a DP are minimized, in which case I would [i:2215d2531a]want[/i:2215d2531a] my #2 to make contact, move the runner, avoid an inning ending DP from the 3rd spot, whose not such a good runner nor hitter (if he is the 5th best).
However, logically and in everyway I would agree entirely...
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by MARCPELLETIER » Sat Mar 18, 2006 11:42 pm
cummings2,
I don't understand your logic, and the few things that I understand doesn't sound logic to me. You seem to assume that good hitters avoid double-plays, but I don't believe this is true. From Jim Rice to Vlad, there has been a ton of strong hitters who were double-plays wonders. About half of all-time leaders in grounded-into-double-plays are hall-of-famers (see here [url] http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/GIDP_career.shtml [/url]
In fact, if your best hitter hits #2, then you will likely avoid calling bunts and hit-and-run, and you will also be more conservative with your runner at first, so your overall chances to ground into double-plays are not minimized, as you say, but actually much increased.
That is in fact the whole rationale of the "old-timer" thinking. Because your #2 is likely to be called hit-and-runs, bunts, and red flags (to let the runner steals second), it was logical for old-times to place in the second slot an "all-tool" player---a player that could hit-and-run, bunt, and also able to take a strike and be capable of putting the ball in play with two strikes, and to avoid to your best hitter these strategies.
I don't understand your logic, and the few things that I understand doesn't sound logic to me. You seem to assume that good hitters avoid double-plays, but I don't believe this is true. From Jim Rice to Vlad, there has been a ton of strong hitters who were double-plays wonders. About half of all-time leaders in grounded-into-double-plays are hall-of-famers (see here [url] http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/GIDP_career.shtml [/url]
In fact, if your best hitter hits #2, then you will likely avoid calling bunts and hit-and-run, and you will also be more conservative with your runner at first, so your overall chances to ground into double-plays are not minimized, as you say, but actually much increased.
That is in fact the whole rationale of the "old-timer" thinking. Because your #2 is likely to be called hit-and-runs, bunts, and red flags (to let the runner steals second), it was logical for old-times to place in the second slot an "all-tool" player---a player that could hit-and-run, bunt, and also able to take a strike and be capable of putting the ball in play with two strikes, and to avoid to your best hitter these strategies.
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by bkoron » Sat Mar 18, 2006 11:55 pm
[quote:3cd6902bf6]Problem is, what to do about clutch and DP numbers when settling a lineup
It is obvious that you have to factor them in. The thing is, clutch and DP in Strat and in real life might not be equivalent.
After looking at millions of data, the "Book" says that there appears to exist a small clutch effect, but the effect is rather quite small, and probably are not important to take care.
In strat, clutch is real and important. There is no doubt for example that, for similar OPS, you should put your best clutch 5th and your worst 3rd. But of course, that's an easier problem than solving what to do when your best OPS is also your worst clutch.[/quote:3cd6902bf6]
An extremely good argument for turning off clutch in SOM altogether.
8) ~BK
It is obvious that you have to factor them in. The thing is, clutch and DP in Strat and in real life might not be equivalent.
After looking at millions of data, the "Book" says that there appears to exist a small clutch effect, but the effect is rather quite small, and probably are not important to take care.
In strat, clutch is real and important. There is no doubt for example that, for similar OPS, you should put your best clutch 5th and your worst 3rd. But of course, that's an easier problem than solving what to do when your best OPS is also your worst clutch.[/quote:3cd6902bf6]
An extremely good argument for turning off clutch in SOM altogether.
8) ~BK
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by MARCPELLETIER » Sun Mar 19, 2006 12:09 am
Actually, the Book did find out a clutch effect, my dear BK....
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by bkoron » Sun Mar 19, 2006 12:18 am
[quote:3ef6ef672b]the "Book" says that there appears to exist a [b:3ef6ef672b][i:3ef6ef672b][u:3ef6ef672b][size=24:3ef6ef672b]small[/size:3ef6ef672b][/u:3ef6ef672b][/i:3ef6ef672b][/b:3ef6ef672b] [size=12:3ef6ef672b]clutch effect, but the effect is rather quite[/size:3ef6ef672b] [b:3ef6ef672b][i:3ef6ef672b][u:3ef6ef672b][size=24:3ef6ef672b]small[/size:3ef6ef672b][/u:3ef6ef672b][/i:3ef6ef672b][/b:3ef6ef672b], and probably are not important to take care.
[/quote:3ef6ef672b]
An extremely good argument for turning off clutch in SOM altogether.
8) ~BK[/quote]
[/quote:3ef6ef672b]
An extremely good argument for turning off clutch in SOM altogether.
8) ~BK[/quote]
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by cummings2 » Sun Mar 19, 2006 1:18 am
Lucky, I have a really hard time understanding my own logic most of the times, that's why I argue that my sense of logic is often quite illogical :wink:
I guess that where my mind was going with my previous comment (and to some extent it still is) is that I associate good hitters with hitters that often make contact. Their hand eye coordination is good enough for them to, more often than not put the ball in play, regardless of power or speed.
In re: to speed [i:00f9c14c89]that[/i:00f9c14c89] is where I was terribly wrong because the fact that they put the ball in play doesn't mean that they are fast and [i:00f9c14c89]in fact[/i:00f9c14c89] if they are not (good runners) it is because of the very nature that they put the ball in play that they are prime candidates for the double play ball. So I followed that link you posted to find the carrer leaders in strikeouts. The list, though not as impressive, still has some very good hitters, mostly (not only of course) power hitters as can be expected.
But anyway, that was my rationale when thinking [i:00f9c14c89]best[/i:00f9c14c89] hitters and hence my getting all :? about best hitters=contact hitters and at the same time best hitter=2 spot=strikeout hitter.
Hope this made sense. Still has a very iffy sense in my very own knuckle-head.
I guess that where my mind was going with my previous comment (and to some extent it still is) is that I associate good hitters with hitters that often make contact. Their hand eye coordination is good enough for them to, more often than not put the ball in play, regardless of power or speed.
In re: to speed [i:00f9c14c89]that[/i:00f9c14c89] is where I was terribly wrong because the fact that they put the ball in play doesn't mean that they are fast and [i:00f9c14c89]in fact[/i:00f9c14c89] if they are not (good runners) it is because of the very nature that they put the ball in play that they are prime candidates for the double play ball. So I followed that link you posted to find the carrer leaders in strikeouts. The list, though not as impressive, still has some very good hitters, mostly (not only of course) power hitters as can be expected.
But anyway, that was my rationale when thinking [i:00f9c14c89]best[/i:00f9c14c89] hitters and hence my getting all :? about best hitters=contact hitters and at the same time best hitter=2 spot=strikeout hitter.
Hope this made sense. Still has a very iffy sense in my very own knuckle-head.
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