Ultimate proof regarding intentional base on balls

[1crazycanuk]

Maybe Nixon was walked to set up a double play as he is slow isn't he?

[LMBombers]

There were already 2 outs.

[MARCPELLETIER]

dnk1234,

interesting point. But Hal could use a default system. Like "if clutch is on, then use this BBI command lines; if not, then use this other BBI command lines".

Out of curiosity; how the BBI result section looks like with clutch turned off?

[the splinter]

[quote:b7e321a634]so I assumed that HAL was using the season's stats, not the card values.
[/quote:b7e321a634]

I always thought Hal never considered the active seasons stats and always valued the actual card.

[cummings2]

Splinter, I think you are right, for a while I thought it was going through season stats due to some questionable moves like the one being discussed here, but the more that I go through things the more I think it's the card value and not the season stats that has more weight, as I said earlier I have a tendency to give HAL the benefit of the doubt often.

--
It seems to me that the 'logic' in determining whether to issue an IBB or not has to be a simple series of steps. From my point of view and limited experience, clutch does seem to have a healthy impact in that deduction process. Of the players I've played with the most that I have noticed more IBB issued to the three names that jump to mind are Jolbert Cabrera, Rolen and Erstad. Now, I haven't kept documented progress of IBB issued to them, but the three of them are + clutchers. As I said before for a while I thought the main element was the player's stats in that league at the time of the AB but now I am more convinced that it is the clutch (card values). I remember Jolbert Cabrera was walked heavily in one league where he was leading off (vs L) with Ichiro batting second (don't ask me why I batted that order, I still don't understand it) Oddly enough Cabrera ended up hitting around 300 with an OBP around 350 (will dig the actual numbers) it made no sense at all -at least to me, so the tought of actual season stats started floating around in my head.

Anyway, the way I see it IBBs would have to issued with two main things in mind: The specific matchups: Pitcher vs. Batter and batter on deck and also the specific context of the game.

Obviously the Nixon/Giambi vs. Franco matchups make it more sensitive to take your chances with Nixon. It is true that Nixon is faster than Giambi but at a 1-11 clip he is hardly a road runner. The runner, Hollandsworth is a non * runner.

Now the game context:

If I am correct about the specific game we're using as an example: At the time of the IBB the team that issued the walk was down by two runs in the 7th inning. If the IBB had been issued by the team who's winning by 4 runs then I could turn the blind eye to bringing the potential tying run to the on deck circle, but in this particular one why on earth would you potentially risk increasing your deficit so late in the game?

So, it is hard to argue that the rationale used to determine IBBs is mainly based on Pitcher vs Batter matchup since the best matchup was issued a BB, then it is even more difficult to think it is affected by the context of the game being played. So what's left? other than clutch...maybe the batter after giambi? If the game played was the one I'm thinking of that batter would've been Bigbie, another Lefty with a somewhat good passable card vs LHP (though he is a 2R bal) but with a serously negative clutch. The game was played in Minute Maid so there is no BP reason to be extra careful with LH Batters...so then, by process of elimination:

1. It's not the Lefty, righty matchups to favor the pitcher.

2. It's not the context of the game

3. It's not SLG, AVG, OBP or Ws/Ns

It seems to me that the only variable left to consider is the Clutch value.

Maybe I am missing someting, though.

[cummings2]

Or it could be a much simpler answer:

HAL does not take into account L/R breakdown of cards, Ws, Ns or clutch. Rather an overall value of the card and the Lefty/ Righty matchup of the pitcher, in which case:

Franco is faced with the option of facing two hitters, both lefties (which favor him).

1. Nixon, is a .315 hitter with an OPS of .887

the other

2. Giambi is a .208 hitter with an OPS of .721

The flaw is of course, as we know, that Nixon gets those numbers vs righties and Giambi mostly vs lefties

[cristano11]

wow that looks a lot like my tour team =)

[tersignf]

I think that's exactly the case Cummings. In fact, as a proxy for measuring overall card value, use the SOMO valuations and I bet you'll find the IBBs adhering to that every time.
All the more reason to place certain players in certain positions of the lineup as "protection"--of course not in the traditional sense of getting pitches to hit, but making the other team pay for HAL's inability to account for the L/R splits.

So, placing a cheaper LHB who hits LHP behind a more expensive LHB who can't hit LHPs is a sound and extensible strategy.

[cummings2]

OK. here goes another case in study. Game 5 in the semis. My team is playing at home down 0-2 going into the 9th inning:

*** TOP OF INNING 9 ***
0 J.Castillo 6 Single b-1
0 1 D.Bell 4 Line Out b-0
1 1 J.Bagwell 1 Wild Pitch 1-2
SUBSTITUTE P - Ryan Madson
1 2 J.Bagwell 5 Strike Out b-0
2 2 Y.A 0 Int Walk b-1
2 12 S.Finley 4 Fly Out b-0

IBB to Bonds pays off, man in scoring position and 1B open, put Bonds on and take your chances with the following LHB (finley) So the hand of the batter isn't factored in, both LHH but Finley with lower numbers and worse clutch (05 set, obviously since Bonds isn't in the 06 set).

Now onto the bottom of the inning:

*** BOTTOM OF INNING 9 *** SUBSTITUTE P - Mariano Rivera
0 T.Perez 7 Single b-1
0 1 D.Roberts 3 Line Out b-0
1 1 L.Castillo 5 Single b-1
1 12 J.Thome 1 Single 2-H 1-3 b-2
1 23 I.Suzuki 1 Single 3-H 2-o b-2
2 2 C.Figgins 0 Int Walk b-1
2 12 C.Crawford 7 Single & Error - SS 2-H 1-3 b-2

O.K. here's the stumper, with the score tied, HAL has Rivera walk Figgins and takes his chances with Crawford...Both were batting lefty so the hand, again is not an issue. Now stats-wise, Crawford has a slight edge on Figgins...but his clutch is worse.

Seems to me that clutch IS one of the main elements in determining IBBs...

BTW, in this team I managed to get a .360+ OBP from Crawford (in Fenway) with enough IBBs to be in the top 5 in the league with 14 freebies (if memory serves me well) due to the Hit and run specific design of this team, Crawford hit ahead of Castillo (bad clutch) most of the season.