Hit and Run

Is the Hit and Run

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Postby cummings2 » Sun Sep 03, 2006 4:35 am

Bump for papa -S-
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Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm

Postby MARCPELLETIER » Mon Feb 12, 2007 2:59 pm

I came across this very good summary article on hit-and-run. It's now on open source, so here it is:

[quote:1c08c80de1]The “Hit and Run” isn’t a major strategy in the game of baseball today. Most teams average less than one attempt per game. Some of the “slower” teams like the Boston Red Sox have an average of something like one attempt per every three games.

Many Strat customers desire a greater role for this option in the computer baseball game – whether in terms of design or enhanced realism. Whether the company ever redesigns this rule remains debatable. They receive a number of e-mails regarding possible enhancements. The amount of feedback elaborating the faults of the current system remains scarce. In other words, they need a better idea of the problems before they can attempt a solution.

In the meantime, revisiting the current super-advanced chart may provide a number of additional strategies and innovations that enhance game play, and potentially, increase winning percentages. The super advanced charts contain a wealth of information, sometimes obscured by a strict reliance on the computer product.

Strat-O-Matic has three basic designations for “hit and run” ability. Situations with the infield or corners in or holding a runner on base, creates a fourth rating or instances where player ability increases by one grade. For example, a player with a “B” hit and run rating becomes an “A” in instances where the defensive manager has placed his corners “in.”

The value of the Hit and Run play doesn’t necessarily arise from generating a base hit. The Super Advanced chart features fewer hits than typically arise on a majority of player cards.

Hit Chances
A – 8 of 36

B – 7 of 36

C – 5 of 36

D – 3 of 36

The higher hit and run designations do provide a good measure of advancing base runners, particularly for those player cards without a sufficient level of hit and on-base chances, but also as a means of avoiding double plays.

Base Advancement Chances
A – 23 of 36

B – 21 of 36

C – 16 of 36

D – 07 of 36

A player with a high number of double plays may benefit from the hit and run strategy, perhaps if only to avoid ending an inning.

The hit and run strategy does not require the assumption that the offense requires the advancement of base runners either.

The “Strat” ball theories, perhaps using the rule as a means of obtaining more hit chances, also factor into its utilization at a given point during a game. There are a limited number of hitter cards in a given set that can benefit from this chart, particularly those players with limited at-bats for a team.

The Pitcher Cards
While the value of the hit and run assists in avoiding potential double play situations and promotes the advancement of base runners, one of the largest benefits of this strategy consists in the changes that occur on the pitcher cards.

The Super Advanced rule disregards four specific readings from the pitcher cards – strikeout, walk, single, and double.

This means that the hit and run strategy minimizes the effect of the strikeout pitcher, such as the 2002 Randy Johnson or the 2003 Kerry Wood or Eric Gagne cards.

In other words, using the hit and run against the high strikeout pitchers represents a very positive strategy, much more so than employing the strategy against the Mark Mulder or Jamie Moyer “control” pitchers.

The Super Advanced rule transfigures a large portion of the Kerry Wood or Eric Gagne card. The rule has a minimal effect on the non-strikeout pitchers like a Kenny Rogers.

To illustrate the point: The 2003 Eric Gagne card has 75 strikeout chances against right-handed hitters. The game rules modify these chances into groundball (1b) C chances for any hitters with an “A” or “B” hit and run rating.

The Super Advanced rule also modifies “walk” readings into groundball (1b) C chances. Gagne has 3 walk chances on his card, creating a total of 78 base advancements opportunities as a whole.

Using the hit and run strategy for a matchup between Jermaine Clark and Gagne presents the following options. Clark, a 2003 player card with a “B” hit and run rating receives 21 of 36 base advancement chances for single-die rolls of 1, 2, or 3 and 78 of 108 base advancement chances for single-die rolls of 4, 5, or 6.

Employing the hit and run strategy with Clark presents better options for the manager. Clark has 4.8 hit chances and he doesn’t stand much of a chance against a powerful pitcher like Gagne. At the very least, attempting the hit and run minimizes the likelihood of a strikeout from Gagne’s card, not to mention the possibility of a double play or non-advancement situation from Clark’s card.

In contrast, the pitcher cards containing multiple walk chances may not reflect an appropriate engagement of a hit and run opportunity. The Super Advanced rules, converting walk chances into groundball (2b) C instances may severely impact the on-base capabilities of the offensive team.

Here, the situation dictates the following question: Am I better off trying to get a walk in this situation, possibly increasing the number of base runners, or should I attempt advancing the base runner at the expense of an out? This answer to this question may depend on the subsequent hitters in the lineup.

Hitter Card Considerations
Using the hit and run successfully also requires a consideration of the hitter card composition – not just the rule modifications affecting the pitcher card.

The hit and run strategy must represent the best option in terms of probability and/or strategy. Otherwise, there’s no reason for engaging in the activity.

Basically, the hit and run strategy necessitates several player traits.

1. Limited number of hit and on-base chances.

2. Limited ability regarding sacrifice bunts.

3. High potential for hitting into a double play.

After all, there’s little pressure for using the hit and run strategy with the All-Star caliber players of a set. Taking away hitter cards with positive hit and on-base chances diminishes offensive production. The success opportunities for a sacrifice bunt may produce greater returns. Players with few or zero groundball (if) A opportunities don’t require such strategy measures. Their cards already contain the readings necessary for advancing base runners.

An examination of the 2003 Edgar Renteria card confirms the second proposition. Renteria advances a base runner a minimum 24 out of 36 chances during infield normal situations, a minimum 27 out of 36 chances throughout situations of the infield (or corners) “in” by the defensive manager.

Assuming one wishes to advance a base runner with the 2003 Renteria card at the plate, the sacrifice bunt accomplishes this task more effectively than the hit and run strategy, at least on a majority of circumstances.

In fact, a majority of players have a bunt rating equal to or greater than their hit and run markings. The 2003 St. Louis Cardinals, for instance, have only a single player, Scott Rolen, with a higher hit and run rating. The 2003 Padres have 7 players, but this team represents the higher end of the spectrum. Most of Strat-O-Matic’s ratings totals fall in between these two numbers.

Finding a substantial number of players with better hit and run ratings, however, doesn’t fully tell the story. These cases must also balance the number of hit chances allotted per card.

Shawn Green has a “B” hit and run rating for situations where the defensive manager brings in the infield or corners. Green also has 20.3 and 25.7 hit chances on the two sides of his card, making such occasions very limited. There’s little point in using the hit and run strategy with a player such as Green who offers a more valuable weapon from his own card results.

The most optimal situation consists in finding hitting cards that meet all three considerations. Unfortunately, this strategy reflects more of a “Stratball” mindset than anything else.

The 2003 Craig Paquette card has 0 hit and on base chances against left-handed pitchers. He has 34 double play chances and a “B” rating with the infield “in” by the defensive manager. The hit and run is probably the “only” strategy that might work in these situations.

In actuality, though one may wish to employ the hit and run strategy more frequently, the number of player cards meeting the three primary conditions, not to mention the number of instances arising for the tactic, creates a very limited set of circumstances.

Furthermore, the influence of hitter and pitcher card considerations into the hit and run strategy contains a limited number of possibilities given Strat-O-Matic’s ratings distribution.

Stolen Base Ability
What every offensive manager should note concerns the players with a better hit and run rating as compared to sacrifice bunt ability. These players present the “prime” hit and run options. All of the previous considerations change with the “C” and “D” hit and run ratings because of the “BMP” (batter misses pitch) game rule.

Most managers probably don’t entertain hit and run considerations given the presence of these ratings.

A – 06 of 36 chances
B – 08 of 36 chances

C – 12 of 36 chances

D – 20 of 36 chances

The “C” hit and run rating contains the possibility of 16 base running chances and 12 “BMP” readings. The “D” ratings produce 7 base running chances and 20 “BMP” readings.

Moreover, the strikeout pitchers don’t see their strikeout chances converted into groundball (1b) C readings. The “C” and “D” hit and run ratings transform the pitcher strikeout numbers into “BMP” readings.

For instance, the Eric Gagne pitching card has 78 “BMP” readings, not groundball (1b) C ones in cases for the “C” and “D” reading.

This means a player card like Richie Sexson (D) has a high possibility of the BMP reading when facing Eric Gagne in a hit and run situation. Basically, the manager commits the base runner to a steal attempt on a high number of occasions.

This is a problematic situation unless the base runner achieves a “good” lead.

Rule 19.8 outlines the essential basics of the decision.

19.8 When using the Supplementary Stealing system and the result of the Hit and Run is "batter misses pitch ..." roll to determine whether the lead base runner achieved his "good lead" only if the base runner had not already attempted to do so before the hit and run was employed. He does not get a second attempt at a "good lead."

Even if the lead runner does not achieve a good lead, he must attempt to steal. If this turns out to be men at first and second bases attempting a double‑steal, the catcher's throw is for the lead runner.

Here, attempting a hit and run with a “C” and “D” rated player card requires getting a good lead for the base runner, at least in the effort for maximizing the success of this option. Otherwise, the offensive manager is giving an “out” away to the opposition.

Using the hit and run with Vernon Wells (3-1 steal numbers) rarely makes sense. Lyle Overbay has better numbers (20-6) but doesn’t have the rating necessary for achieving a good lead on a majority of occasions.

Section 19.8 only adds to the difficulties of employing the hit and run option. Lower proficiency players work in conjunction with player cards possessing good stolen base ability.

Winning with the hit and run strategy doesn’t necessarily hold as a futile effort. Nonetheless, this strategy requires serious thinking about the alternatives and options present at a particular time in the game. For the most part, the “hit and run” represents more of a gimmick or “Stratball” device than a serious strategy concern that occupies serious standing in any managerial computations.

Use the hit and run strategy with “A” and “B” ratings against the strikeout pitcher. The Super Advanced rule penalizes this pitcher type more than any other type of card. Avoid engaging in this strategy with “C” and “D” ratings.

Check the percentages for the sacrifice bunt before factoring the hit and run possibilities.

Employ the hit and run using hitters with high double play chances and limited hit chances.

Always check the stolen base ability of a base runner before making a decision about employing this option.

Like what you see here? This article was reprinted from the Members-Only section at www.somworld.com. There’s lots more like it on all the Strat-O-Matic sports at Somworld, which offers free articles each week and many more for subscribers.
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Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm

Postby Detroit-Tigers » Mon Feb 12, 2007 3:26 pm

Luckyman check your email.
Posts: 55
Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm

Postby cummings2 » Tue Feb 13, 2007 8:50 pm

Thanks for the post Marcus. I will be resuming some Hit and Run/ Stealing activities shortly. I will post some data to compliment that really good article you quoted above.

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Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm


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