Arm/range studies
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by Proverbial Psalms » Mon Sep 24, 2007 9:30 am
Dean... just wanted to express appreciation for your detailed analysis and for the re-iterative studies. As always, your insight adds a lot the experience here
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by cristano11 » Tue Oct 02, 2007 3:55 pm
dean-
your study is absolutely correct... i verified it using the strat-o-matic i programmed into excel...
the reason u see a bigger difference between 0 and +3 vs -3 and 0 is because the 200x baserunning speeds are more concentrated...
if atg was used (and ive done atg too) you see a more linear distribution
your study is absolutely correct... i verified it using the strat-o-matic i programmed into excel...
the reason u see a bigger difference between 0 and +3 vs -3 and 0 is because the 200x baserunning speeds are more concentrated...
if atg was used (and ive done atg too) you see a more linear distribution
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by wavygravy2k » Tue Feb 19, 2008 12:27 am
What rules were used in the study? From my understanding, SOM uses Max Rules with 'More baserunning decisions' turned on. I would think that the outfielder's arm would be more of a factor with this rule turned on.
[b:240919dce5]From CD Rom Help:[/b:240919dce5]
[color=darkred:240919dce5]MORE BASERUNNING DECISIONS (Located in the Options/Rules/Maximum Rules dialog)
Using this option allows for more baserunning decisions because it does not follow the board game rules for baserunning. For instance, using this option you will often be asked if you wish to send a runner from first to third on a Single* or a Single** reading. In the board game Single* means a single with runners advancing one base and Single** means a single with runners advancing two bases (it is automatic in both cases, no option exists). PLEASE NOTE: This option is not included in the DOS version of the game so draft leagues which mix DOS and CD-ROM gamers should not use it.
This option also allows certain basehits to be stretched. For instance, some singles will have an option to be stretched into a double, some doubles to triples and some triples to inside the park homeruns!
[/color:240919dce5]
[b:240919dce5]Take the following example where it appears that the outfielder's arm is put into play:[/b:240919dce5]
[color=blue:240919dce5]1 out, Rolen (1-12) on 1st. Dye (-2) in right. Kelvim Escobar(R) on the mound.
Base hit to right for Ward
Rolen is being waved to third...
The throw is going to third...
Rolen is out at third base!
Ward advances to 2nd on the throw
(Roll:2-5) SINGLE**[/color:240919dce5]
If 'More baserunning decisions' was off, Rolen would automatically be at third with no arm factor.
[b:240919dce5]From CD Rom Help:[/b:240919dce5]
[color=darkred:240919dce5]MORE BASERUNNING DECISIONS (Located in the Options/Rules/Maximum Rules dialog)
Using this option allows for more baserunning decisions because it does not follow the board game rules for baserunning. For instance, using this option you will often be asked if you wish to send a runner from first to third on a Single* or a Single** reading. In the board game Single* means a single with runners advancing one base and Single** means a single with runners advancing two bases (it is automatic in both cases, no option exists). PLEASE NOTE: This option is not included in the DOS version of the game so draft leagues which mix DOS and CD-ROM gamers should not use it.
This option also allows certain basehits to be stretched. For instance, some singles will have an option to be stretched into a double, some doubles to triples and some triples to inside the park homeruns!
[/color:240919dce5]
[b:240919dce5]Take the following example where it appears that the outfielder's arm is put into play:[/b:240919dce5]
[color=blue:240919dce5]1 out, Rolen (1-12) on 1st. Dye (-2) in right. Kelvim Escobar(R) on the mound.
Base hit to right for Ward
Rolen is being waved to third...
The throw is going to third...
Rolen is out at third base!
Ward advances to 2nd on the throw
(Roll:2-5) SINGLE**[/color:240919dce5]
If 'More baserunning decisions' was off, Rolen would automatically be at third with no arm factor.
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by childsmwc » Wed Feb 20, 2008 9:45 pm
Dean,
You will find that the catchers arms impact the game very similarly to the outfielder arms. I went back and reviewed 30 to 40 plus seasons for each team in the league, and the reason this holds true is that a good catcher can only get finitely better than the average catcher (i.e. if an average catcher (-1) arm, allows a mix of SB/CS that estimates to say 15 runs a season, then the best catcher can only be 15 runs better than your baseline (in fact regardless of the arm in the -4 to -1 range, the sb% is roughly the same, it is the attempts that go down).
However, on the other end of the spectrum, as the arm gets worse, more and more runners steal, and in addition the SB % increases so the combination creates an exponential growth in runs allowed for the worse catchers.
I would assume that this analogy holds true for OF arms as well.
Bbrool
You will find that the catchers arms impact the game very similarly to the outfielder arms. I went back and reviewed 30 to 40 plus seasons for each team in the league, and the reason this holds true is that a good catcher can only get finitely better than the average catcher (i.e. if an average catcher (-1) arm, allows a mix of SB/CS that estimates to say 15 runs a season, then the best catcher can only be 15 runs better than your baseline (in fact regardless of the arm in the -4 to -1 range, the sb% is roughly the same, it is the attempts that go down).
However, on the other end of the spectrum, as the arm gets worse, more and more runners steal, and in addition the SB % increases so the combination creates an exponential growth in runs allowed for the worse catchers.
I would assume that this analogy holds true for OF arms as well.
Bbrool
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by visick » Sun Feb 24, 2008 9:45 am
[quote:65f995fd64]My next studies will examine the effect of manager settings. For instance, in the next study, I'll sim the seasons with "very aggressive" and "extra conservative" basestealing settings, and see what SB and CS result. [/quote:65f995fd64]
Not to rush you but...what did you find?
:D
Not to rush you but...what did you find?
:D
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by Mean Dean » Sun Feb 24, 2008 2:19 pm
Well, I got distracted by working on the attempt to break down the fielding charts and quantify defense. But I am still working on that. It's tedious work, simming seasons and writing down numbers, but I will get to it.
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by The Biomechanical Man » Wed Jun 11, 2008 7:01 pm
Great job, Dean. And thanks for sharing. I agree with you that 50 simulated 162-game seasons is plenty to show the trends. If you email me data in an Excel spreadsheet, I will be happy to test whether it is statistically significant, and post the results here. For the data, list the season win totals in columns for each situation (arm strength, etc.).
You or others may have done it previously, but have you done this kind of comparison between fielding range? In other words, how does a change from cf-1 to cf-3 change runs allowed.?
You or others may have done it previously, but have you done this kind of comparison between fielding range? In other words, how does a change from cf-1 to cf-3 change runs allowed.?
Last edited by The Biomechanical Man on Thu Jun 12, 2008 5:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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