by CHARLESBELL » Wed Oct 05, 2005 1:03 pm
Let's see, it looks like you are playing Schneider (c), Morneau (dh), Erstad (1b), Chavez (3b), Everett (ss), Finley (cf), Dejesus (lf), and Reese(2b) pretty much full time (when not injured) and platooning Nixon/Ordonez (rf). That about right?
Great SPs, decent pen, strong defense in Petco are the positives. You've built a very strong pitching and defense oriented team and that is where your wins should be coming from.
High injury risk, maybe too much pitching, and I believe too much emphasis on defense over OBP are the main issues.
Injuries - You have an all injury infield with Erstad your most durable at an inj 2. That puts a lot of pressure on your bench, which is big on defense but can't hit. Everett's defense can be worth the risk, but I don't like Reese, and I really don't like like both of them anchoring your infield. Add Chavez and your infield is going to spend a lot of time on the DL.
OBP - Way not enough OBP. I'm trying to guess your lineup. If it were me I would try to get as much OBP at the top as I could, even if it hurts me GIDP-wise, as you have a serious shortage there. So, vs RHP:
erstad
dejesus (though everett would be best bet if you HAD to go with low DPs)
nixon
chavez
morneau (I like good clutch and high TB there)
finley
and the rest don't much matter
That's at least 6 lefties in a row and 7 lefties vs RHP. Smart teams will be throwing lots of reverse righties at you. LHP lineup scares me. At best you have 3/4 righties in that lineup (everett, reese, ordonez), only Ordonez knows how to hold a bat, and only Chavez among the lefties can hit lefties well, making your team very vulnerable to LH pitching too.
It is not surprising that in Petco, with this offense, that your OBP is below .300, and I don't know too many teams that will win with that.
You are going to have to improve that OBP IMO. You have something like $42M invested in pitching. Some of it needs to go. My suggestion is to get rid of one of your 3 high cost starters for a 500k s/r (hard lefty preferred) and live with colon as your 4th if you have to. I'd also suggest looking at a cheap, high C closer (frasor or the like) and replace ryan with him. See what that would generate for you in salary and look at what you can get to upgrade your OBP (1st priority) and balance all those lefties with a couple of RH hitters (2nd priority). Replacing reese would be my first choice, then just see what is the best you can get. Build up the OBP, use your new closer in only closer situations, use the s/r as your lefty specialist, and keep/put your best 3 SPs on slow hook to keep your pen from getting overworked.
My two cents.