by Terry101 » Wed Jul 05, 2006 12:19 am
A 5 chance injury player will miis, on the average, about 38-40 games or around 160 at bats. He could miss less or much more-as many as 35-40% of the games- over 250 ab's. Mathematically here are some interesting facts about a 5 chance injury player:
He has a 25% chance of drawing the injury chance in any 3 game set. And,on the average he will be injured for about 3.5 games. So, for every 3 game set, you can expect, on the average, for the player to be injured for 3/4 of a game.
You can expect the player get the injury chance around 12-13 times during the year. Some of these will be for the remainder of the game, some will be for a long time.
If you are lucky enough to make the playoffs and the player is healthy for Game 1 he has a close to a 70% chance of drawing the injury chance in one of his at bats during the playoffs (assuming playing all 12 games).
He has a 50% chance of being injured in any 8 game set.
And as for the response on the other thread, it is not quite correct to say that for every injury chance you lose about 7 % of playing time. If that were correct then a player who had 14 injury chances on his card would be injured about 100% of the time.
Anyway, it is a personal choice. My concern is getting to the playoffs and not being able to field your best team because one or two of your players are sittiing.
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