by **MARCPELLETIER** » Fri Aug 26, 2005 8:04 pm

BTW, I want to make a modification. Earlier, I just throw out numbers without checking them, saying that Everett could turn 40 more dps behind a pitching allowing lots of on-base, but in fact, the difference is much smaller. As you can see below, 10 dps is a much better estimation.

For the sake of the argument, I've compared these two teams:

Team A: Schmidt, Santana, Zambano, Sheets

Team B: Jamey Wright, Ishii, Lowe, Lackey

The selection of each player in team B was guided by the willingness to select 1M-2M playable starters who would match to pitchers in team A in all stats except for on-base allowed. Thus, Ishii, a lefty, has similar power numbers to lefty Santana, but much more on-base. Lowe, like Zambrano, doesn't give up the long ball, but he gives more on-base than Zambrano.

These two teams will differ in two important aspects:

1) Team A will have less runners on-base than Team B

2) Team A will face less hitters than Team B.

I think the implication of the first statement for the number of dps is self-evident. Because team A allows less runners, it will be involved in less double-play situations than team B. On average, 18% of all baseball events are dp situations. Unfortunately, I can't compute what would be the probability of having a dp situation for every pitcher, so I looked up at their stats for last years, and I made projections based on the probability of each event. It's a bit of a long process, so you'll have to take my words for it. But I came up with the following probabilities for being in a dp situation for the selected pitchers:

Team A:

Schmidt: 15.9%

Santana: 14.7%

Zambano: 18.3%

Sheets: 13.1%

Average: 15.5%

Team B:

Wright: 19.6%

Ishii: 18.3%

Lowe: 20.1%

Lackey: 16.8%

Average:18.7%

I was expecting a higher percentages of dp situations for team B, but the presence of Lackey reduces the average of dp situations for team B. Lackey was chosen because he was the pitcher who matched Sheets the best in the 1-2M range. Indeed, he has a 3.5% higher chances of being in a dp situation than Sheets. As an owner who picked up Lackey and played him in a full season, I can attest that Lackey's whip has been very good for the money. The card is affected by lots of doubles vs rhp, but doubles don't create dp situations, hence his low probability for dp situations.

So, on average, we have a 3.2% increase in the probability for team B of being into a dp situation. Assuming 189 readings of SS-X (based on 27X216 rolls per season), I come up with the result that Everett will turn 6 more double-plays in team B than in team A.

However, the total numbers of dps turned in a season will also be influenced by wht is mentioned in the second assumption, that team B will face more hitters than team A. The reason for this is simple: if a team allows an .380 on-base, then its whip is gonna be pretty high. On the contrary, the team allowing a .280 on-base will have a low whip. However, they both need the same number of outs. Both team must retire around 27 players per game, or 4374 players per season, or 4374/3 = 1458 innings per season. As a consequence, a higher whip will translate necessary into facing more hitters as a matter to reach that 1458 innings. Because team B will face more hitters, it will have to roll the dices more often, and consequently, team B will have more SS-X readings than team A. The net impact of this will be increased double-plays.

Because we know the difference of on-base between team A and team B, we can estimate the difference of whip, and hence the increase of dice rolls team B will necessitate to finish off the season. I won't bother you with the overall computions, but, assuming that team A will have a whip of 1.00, I get that team B will have a whip of 1.48.

Here, I'll make two assumptions. First, I will assume that the difference of whips only lasts for six innings per game. I will thus assume that both teams have similar whips for three innings of every game, either because the relievers of team B who take charge of the game after a pitcher's performance is as good as the pitchers in team A, or else because both pitchers are removed quickly and replaced by similar "mop-up" pitchers.

Because of this assumption, the difference of 0.48 for the whip that we got earlier becomes now a difference of 0.32. Assuming 27X216 rolls of dices per season, I obtain that team B will have to roll the dices 483 more times than team A, which will translate into around 16 more readings of SS-X. Assuming that team B will be involved in dp situations for 18.7% of the time, we can conclude that Everett will turn an additional 3 dps for team B.

Thus, the overall impact of having Everett behind a loose pitching staff like team B compared to a stellar pitching staff like team A is 9 double-plays.