by **J-Pav** » Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:03 am

Here are two equally priced pitchers:

Ryan Drese, Bal: E, $2.94 (Groundball Pitcher, 2.20 G/F)*

Kelvim Escobar, Bal: 1L, $3.03 (Flyball Pitcher, 1.14 G/F)*

* From 2004 MLB Statistics (not from analysis of the cards)

[i:98942826e7]Drese's line against RH batters:[/i:98942826e7]**

K-0, BB-2, HIT-25.5, OB-27.5, TB-32.7, HR-0, BP-0, [b:98942826e7]DP-10[/b:98942826e7]

[i:98942826e7]Escobar's line against RH batters:[/i:98942826e7]**

K-29, BB-2, HIT-11.7, OB-18.7, TB-27.8, HR-2.8, BP-5, [b:98942826e7]DP-3[/b:98942826e7]

** From the S.O.M. Ratings Book

[b:98942826e7]Valen[/b:98942826e7]:

Your point is well made. I'm not a sabermetrician, so I can't tell you specifically what is the value of a gb(A). Drese has over three times the double-play opportunities of Escobar, but it looks like he has a lot to overcome to be priced equally (my opinion, maybe the math bears it out...those homers and BP homers may have more of an impact in a hitters park than I'm now evaluating at a glance).

It appears I might incorrectly have assumed that you paid less for giving up more baserunners, so the value of a "1" on defense meaning more to a lower priced pitcher (i.e., adding value because the gb(x)s result in a higher payoff) might also be incorrect. If it's all priced efficiently, then there may be no statistical advantage to pursuing "groundball pitchers (w/ good defense behind them)."

The opposite strategy would be pairing RJ w/ "3s" or "4s" in the infield to see if you could get away with less defense in order to improve your offense. You don't really need all "1s" with RJ striking out one point something batters per inning. Unfortunately for me, it's gonna all come down to the math, so I'm curious to see how luckyman responds. I know one of his core arguments in the past has been the insufficiently priced value of the SOM double-play.