Skill or Chance?

[geekor]

funny cause where you guys are having trouble, I'm flourishing. 05 season was hell for me, I just couldn't get around to making team work. now even experimental teams are working for me. I just don't get it either, but 06 definetly favors my managerial style.

btw, my overall winning % is skewed to being on the beta test team, those 6 teams (quickdraft) are under .500 on average, my bought teams I carry a .534 winning % in 06 so far.

[J-Pav]

[b:76e6917042]geekor[/b:76e6917042]:

Keep on keepin' on.

In the meantime, I decided I'm through whining, I'm hanging up my skirt, grabbing the boys and setting out to, if nothing else, at least beat up on a few newbs until I figure this thing out.

Watch out fellow geeks, The Pain Train is about to leave the station...

[rgimbel]

good luck to you and lets kick some butt I know for me monday starts a new team

[J-Pav]

Same, same. 8)

[cummings2]

Att'sa spirit J :!: GO get 'em!! All of 'em :!:
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Wait a tick :shock: Oh jeez :roll: The "Pain Train" is in my league :cry:

:wink:

Good to have you back J. 8)

[worrierking]

[quote:a95c2d6013]When you're playing .580 ball, it's easy to wonder what all the fuss is about. [/quote:a95c2d6013]

I just wanted this posted one more time so everybody could see it. :lol:

I know it won't last.

BTW, I looked briefly at some of the top players winning % in 06 compared to previous years. It looks to me like there may be something to the trend mentioned previously. But it looks like the winning % has been going down slowly for the past several years. This is just from a quick look at things, but I'm coming around to the argument.

[ERICZAMPOL]

[quote:d2bec95442="Cummings2"]Don't know if it's related or relevant but this year I've found it a bit tougher to match or exceed RS vs. R.Projected (if you use the simple RS=OBP*SLG*ABs) [/quote:d2bec95442]

Interestingly enough, I doubted this claim until I looked at the evidence. I am a relative newbie, but looking at all 132 teams I played against in 2005 versus the 48 that have at least 100 games played this year, regressed runs scored against OBP*SLG. The 2005 regression explained 99.9% of the variance in runs scored! The 2006 regerssion explained only 98.0%. The difference is seemingly not large, but is infact statistically significant - once I looked at the sqaured residuals from each year and compared the means and variances, I found that the two groups of errors were indeed statistically different.

My sample size is somewhat limited at 4 seasons in 06, but one odd thing I noticed is that certain leagues in 06 in my model are producing "problems" - presumably because the leagues are either dominated by pitchers parks or hitters parks in a systematic fashion that did not seem to happen in 06. I am not sure if this will hold up once I have more leagues to look at in 06, but I was surprised by this "preliminary" result.

[J-Pav]

[b:08764d7d61]Ez:[/b:08764d7d61]

Thanks for the post. I hope you can uncover more and help kill this ghost in the machine.

I don't know about the ballpark situation, but there's probably something to be found in the deeper pool of pitchers this year. I'm noticing some very strong ERAs in hitters parks that I'm not accustomed to seeing in the past.

Those extra baserunners are getting stranded for a reason, and it certainly does not appear to be coming from the [i:08764d7d61]tight defense[/i:08764d7d61].

Thx again!

[MARCPELLETIER]

[quote:e9735f6782]I don't know about the ballpark situation, but there's probably something to be found in the deeper pool of pitchers this year. I'm noticing some very strong ERAs in hitters parks that I'm not accustomed to seeing in the past.
[/quote:e9735f6782]

I have to agree.

[cummings2]

This is exactly the point that confuses me a little, in the process of trying to figure out why my teams are not being so effective I initially pointed out to the stronger pitching pool as well however, just from simple logical deduction: if it were the better pitching, wouldn't this mean that the [i:a59ff35d8f]overall[/i:a59ff35d8f] offensive numbers would be down? i.e. Not only in re: to efficiency but down, period. The SLG*OBP numbers would still be fairly around the ballpark when it comes to run scored but the overall numbers would be lower, hence lower runs scored. However, it seems like the problem is what J pointed to up above:

[i:a59ff35d8f]Those extra baserunners are getting stranded for a reason, and it certainly does not appear to be coming from the tight defense.[/i:a59ff35d8f]

My initial impression, though I may be entirely wrong, is that there are more gbAs in the pitcher's card in this set as opposed to last year's, running some rough numbers, the avergae GDPs last year in my leagues was around 135 per team in a season. This season the average GDPs in my 6 leagues to have finished their season hovers around 150 per team through 162 games ( I had 1 team finish with 206 GDPs), but my sample of this year's leagues is quite different than last year's, in this year I haven't played any TSN autoleagues they've all been private and or themed leagues with different sal. caps and roster restrictions so my stats might be skewed because of that.

Maybe someone else can run that figure through their seasons and let us know, perhaps I'm wrong about this.