The Secret Formula 2010

Postby J-Pav » Sat Jan 22, 2011 4:56 pm

Yeah, I just use the final rosters and ignore any in-season transactions.

And yes, the season is over for The Secret Formula Theory in Action team. Playoffs start on Monday night.
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Postby joethejet » Mon Jan 24, 2011 1:11 am

Yeah, my May/June team got hot at the right time. Just sqeaked into the playoffs and then managed to get enough breaks to take it.

Thems the playoffs for you. Ratings pretty much go out the door.

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Postby J-Pav » Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:18 pm

[size=24:7459303610]Congratulations to [b:7459303610]salmonbellies'[/b:7459303610] wildcard team [i:7459303610]Nanaimo Ketchup[/i:7459303610] for taking the ring. [/size:7459303610]

HAL decided to forego the Formula/Goldzillas matchup in favor of the Ketchup/Village scenario. 100 pythag wins erased in two nights for me and 98 pythag wins erased in two nights for the Goldzillas.

In hindsight I would not have changed one thing though. If I had to play one team 30 times all season, I would happily accept this lineup.

[quote:7459303610="Theory in Action: J-Pav"]

IV. Score Runs And Do Not Allow Runs

I averaged out the runs scored of my players in each of their previous five seasons to give myself a general idea of what I might expect from my offense. I could potentially see about 775 runs scored, if my forecast has the same luck as last year. I should have the power to compete in the big hitter's parks and the oba/speed to compete in the pitcher's parks.

A sub four ERA will likely hinge on Johnson's stats, as for whatever reason his card seems subject to wider swings than his salary would suggest. Still, my conventional rotation and bullpen set-up (combined with the defense) looks pretty solid, and if five previous seasons of stats are any indication, I might make a stab at approaching 600 runs allowed.

I was first in offense with 855 runs scored and second in pitching with 671 runs allowed (100 pythag wins). I probably underestimated the ballpark influences some, but my hitting really produced: 5.28 runs per game is a lot.

Pitching-wise, the right Josh Johnson showed up, and Johnson/Sabathia really got going after a slow start (somehow I managed to inadvertently place Roenicke in the closer box for the first week of the season!) When I saw several RHB heavy opposing lineups, adding Masterson was like shooting fish in a barrel. Also, the RPs innings perfectly correlated to their respective prices.

Don't know if I could have delivered a better effort than this one, but alas, no ring still. :(

Here's an interesting sidebar:

2009 has been my highest pct win season in SOM Online (.552). In my last 13 teams, I finished first 11 times and second twice. I won one ring, lost one Finals and [i:7459303610]lost nine semi-Finals[/i:7459303610]! That's a [i:7459303610]lot[/i:7459303610] of bad juju for one manager to absorb!

Hopefully now that this Secret Formula thing is in the rear-view mirror, HAL will learn to like me again soon! :D
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Re: The Secret Formula 2010

Postby J-Pav » Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:36 pm

[quote:254bb0a253="J-Pav"][i:254bb0a253]"Unhappy is the fate of one who tries to win his battles and succeed in his attacks without cultivating the spirit of enterprise, for the result is waste of time and general stagnation."

- Sun Tzu [/i:254bb0a253]

I hadn’t even launched my TSF team when I rushed out and bought a $40 mil pitching staff team based on a likely delusional insight I had yesterday morning. I can’t even post the annual TSF without going out the next day and doing the opposite of everything I just said to do! But that’s cultivating the spirit of enterprise my friends. [/quote:254bb0a253]

For anyone who's interested, here's the team I was talking about:

I missed the playoffs on the last night of the season, finishing one game back. The goal of the experiment: score 750 runs with the least amount of salary possible.

I scored 722 runs; however, 722 was only good for 11th place in this particular league. Pitching was lights out #1, as it should be when you spend $40 mil on pitching. The "one-run games" luck factor decided things for this team, where one third of my games were decided by one run and I was only 24-30 (.444). I had a four game edge in pythag wins, but actual records don't always mirror the predicted ones.

Still, it was a fun team to watch, as I don't often roam this far to the edge of the envelope.

Food for thought...
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Postby joethejet » Fri Feb 04, 2011 2:29 am


a couple of quick thoughts

- playoffs are a crap shoot, but that's crappy luck. Ouch.
- a low scoring team is goign to play a lot of one run games which leads to the luck factor. Hard to consistently win when you have to get the die rolls in close games.

Now, when do we start 2010? ;)

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Postby J-Pav » Fri Feb 04, 2011 7:49 pm

Soon! (I hope) :D

Hey [b:c93a98a645]Joe[/b:c93a98a645],

If you get time, I'd be curious to know how my team rated out. I'm esp curious about the pitching. I believe this was the single best pitching staff I put on the field all year. Was wondering if you (or at least the numbers!) concurred.

Bedard and Outman were a combined 14-25 in PNC?? Bad dice indeed. :twisted:
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