Approximate Games Missed Due to Injury Rating...

[The_Hook]

You're right, I didn't scale it based on missed games due to injury. That's kinda funny that thought didn't occur to me back then. On average it does work out fairly accurate though. With that minor fix it should get it even closer. It's a statistical average model and of course there is always variance based on the luck of the 162 game season.

For me, it was enough to convince me that Del Rice in ATG was worth the injury risk after seeing the numbers. Each season he was within +/- 8 games of my chart based on hitting him 8th in the order.

I should fix those charts though, it's handy info to have. I plug it into another spreadsheet that gives me potential run production. In that I am generally within 50 runs if I put a lineup in.

The_Hook

[The Biomechanical Man]

I like to keep it simple. My new "chart" (based upon the data above from The Hook and Marcus Wilby)

[b:7c50d4e76d]The Biomechanical Chart[/b:7c50d4e76d]
[quote:7c50d4e76d]
For players with <600 PA:
[list:7c50d4e76d][*:7c50d4e76d]Estimated games missed = 9 x Injury chance on card[/list:u:7c50d4e76d][/quote:7c50d4e76d]

[Palmtana]

[quote:3f96cbdcef="marcus wilby"].... Here is the chart that TSN says it uses for players under 600 AB


1-2 Stays in game
3-4 Inj. for remainder of game
5-8 Inj. for 1 extra game
9-11 Inj. for 2 extra games
12-13 Inj. for 3 extra games
14 Inj. for 4 extra games
15 Inj. for 5 extra games
16 Inj. for 6 extra games
17 Inj. for 7 extra games
18 Inj. for 8 extra games
19 Inj. for 10 extra games
20 Inj. for 15 extra games


......Some people have said that 15-game injuries happen more frequently than 10-games or 8-games, and therefore it cannot be the case that you have only 1 chance out of 20 to have a 15-game injury. One potential explanation would be that TSN uses harsher injury penalties for players with fewer PAs, say under 250 PA or 300 PA. But as I write this, I don't feel we have any evidence that TSN does this. In fact, TSN denied it.....[/quote:3f96cbdcef]


The chart above is the one that I have seen in the past. A while back I decided to see if it was accurate. After a season is over you can go back and look at all the injuries for rolls between 5 and 20. I surveyed 10 of my past leagues, 2918 injury rolls, and found the following:


[code:1:3f96cbdcef]
Rolls TSN % of My %
total rolls

1-4 20 20.2

5-8 20 19.1

9-11 15 14.2

12-13 10 19.6

14 5 3.9

15 5 3.8

16 5 3.8

17 5 3.6

18 5 3.8

19 5 3.7

20 5 4.3 [/code:1:3f96cbdcef]


The obvious discrepancy is the 3 game injury roll. Almost twice the chances compared to what was thought. The mismatch showed up with the same regularity in all 10 leagues. The increase in the 3 roll % comes mainly from the 4-15 game rolls. With the 15 gamer having the least decrease. :(

[MARCPELLETIER]

Palmtana,

That was a heck of a clerical job. Thanks for sharing.

The chart you referred to is the one used for players with less than 600 AB. For those with more than 600 PA, the following is used:

1-2 Stays in game
3-4 Inj. for remainder of game
5-8 Inj. for 1 extra game
9-11 Inj. for 2 extra games
12-20 Inj. for 3 extra games

And for those with 680 PA and more, it's the following:

1-2 Stays in game
3-20 Inj for the remainder of game.


So if you combine them all, you expect exactly what you observe:

slight bump for "remainder" (this explains the 20.2% you have for 1-4 vs 19.1% for 5-8)
major bump for "3 games" (this explains the 19.6 you have for 12-13)
eqaul distribution for everything above 3 games (this explain the results going from 3.6% to 4.3%).

Like one genius said, "Nice work if you can get it"

[Palmtana]

Aha! I'm glad to see HAL is not off on a tangent.

[The Biomechanical Man]

[quote:22e6f3c0d2="marcus wilby"]And for those with 680 PA and more, it's the following:

1-2 Stays in game
3-20 Inj for the remainder of game.[/quote:22e6f3c0d2]

Luckyman, I don't believe this. In my experience, the 680 PA guys never get hurt - even for the remainder of a game. I've posted a challenge before for anyone to find an example of a 680+ PA guy leaving a game due to injury, and no one's posted such a boxscore. Unless someone can post even one boxscore where a 680+ PA guy comes out, I'm going to continue believing that they are never injured at all.

[chasenally]

Here is what I learned. Man am I a dumb *** or what. What! What! and one more What! If this post was a snake it would have bit me. I beleive it depends on the trainers and doctors that you have on staff. Did you try to come back too early? Are you faking the injury so that you don't have to go on the next road trip to Canada? Are you looking to be traded? Maybe your wife is due next week. Come on people keep it real! You make this sound like it is all about probibilties and you keep the emotion out. I can't spell Ee-Quay-Sion or Prob-A-Bill-it-Tees, but I know when a player is tanking it. With these high salary contracts these guys won't play when they have a hang nail. :roll:

[fredpaii]

[quote:47a4f45cc8="chasenally"]Here is what I learned. Man am I a dumb *** or what. What! What! and one more What! If this post was a snake it would have bit me. I beleive it depends on the trainers and doctors that you have on staff. Did you try to come back too early? Are you faking the injury so that you don't have to go on the next road trip to Canada? Are you looking to be traded? Maybe your wife is due next week. Come on people keep it real! You make this sound like it is all about probibilties and you keep the emotion out. I can't spell Ee-Quay-Sion or Prob-A-Bill-it-Tees, but I know when a player is tanking it. With these high salary contracts these guys won't play when they have a hang nail. :roll:[/quote:47a4f45cc8]


Exactly.

[MARCPELLETIER]

I guess you're right, Glenn. I couldn't find either as well. Weird.

[The Biomechanical Man]

[quote:38eae6e871="marcus wilby"]I guess you're right, Glenn. I couldn't find either as well. Weird.[/quote:38eae6e871]

I'm marking down today's date as the day that [i:38eae6e871]I[/i:38eae6e871] taught something to [i:38eae6e871]luckyman[/i:38eae6e871]! :lol: