Approximate Games Missed Due to Injury Rating...

Approximate Games Missed Due to Injury Rating...

Postby fredpaii » Mon Feb 15, 2010 2:27 pm

You know...The hitters injury rating. What if a guy is a "5". How many games will he miss on average through a full SOM season?

Maybe people who have played a '5' injury player all year can help me out on this one as well. But is there also a general rule of thumb for time missed for the #'s 1-6 injury ratings?

Thank you
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Postby visick » Mon Feb 15, 2010 2:35 pm

There's no rule of thumb.
It's buyer beware.

I've gotten 500AB's out of guys with high injury ratings. And I've also been impatient when the go down, what seems like night after night.

If you are going to use such a player, invest wisely in a good backup.

You can either go with 1 good backup between $1-$2 million or spend it between 2 guys. One balanced to the left, the other to the right.
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Postby fredpaii » Mon Feb 15, 2010 2:58 pm

[quote:366f75fb24="socalchiro"]There's no rule of thumb.
It's buyer beware.

I've gotten 500AB's out of guys with high injury ratings. And I've also been impatient when the go down, what seems like night after night.

If you are going to use such a player, invest wisely in a good backup.

You can either go with 1 good backup between $1-$2 million or spend it between 2 guys. One balanced to the left, the other to the right.[/quote:366f75fb24]

It's for the 2005 season with J.D. Drew as the '5' CF. I also have Carlos Beltran ($2.38 mil) who hits well vs. LHPs and has a few BPHRs vs RHPs. Switch-hitter. I also have Cory Patterson ($.500). My homepark is Ameriquest (13-19). My otherr choice was Juan Rivera. Not bad but he's no Drew.
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Postby The Biomechanical Man » Mon Feb 15, 2010 3:02 pm

The estimation I use is as follows:[list:3babeaa647][*:3babeaa647]680 or more plate appearances - no games missed.
[*:3babeaa647]600-679 PA - 3 games missed for each injury chance on card.
[*:3babeaa647]Less than 600 PA - 15 games missed for each injury chance on card.[/list:u:3babeaa647]

So if a player has 650 PA and an injury on a 12 (1 chance), I'm guessing he'll miss about 3 games during the season.

If a player has 250 PA and an injury on a 8 (5 chances), I'm guessing he'll miss about 85 games.

I have no idea how accurate this is, as I tend not to start players with more than 2 injury chances.
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Postby LMBombers » Mon Feb 15, 2010 3:08 pm

I think you can expect about 400 AB from a player with a 5 injury rating. More than that is a bonus.
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Postby dharmabums » Mon Feb 15, 2010 3:36 pm

I just did a live draft and picked two I2s (Chipper and Byrd), an I4 (Hairston, jr), and the infamous Furcal (I5). I definitely concentrated a good part of my draft to get good backups (Scutaro, Loretta, Winn, Cora (who's an I3)). I also have some 600+ players to help hold things together. But I'm taking a deep breath right now while we're still in preseason. It's a different feel from the salary cap, where I might have gone for one of those hi-I players. Makes me feel a bit more courageous (or fool-hardy). :)
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Injury analysis

Postby The_Hook » Tue Feb 16, 2010 12:19 am

[code:1:d23144cb7b]
>599 PA Injury location

Order PA 2,12 3,11 4,10 5,9 6,8 7
1 775 6.64 13.27 19.91 26.55 33.18 39.82
2 756 6.48 12.95 19.43 25.90 32.38 38.85
3 737 6.31 12.63 18.94 25.25 31.57 37.88
4 725 6.21 12.41 18.62 24.82 31.03 37.23
5 706 6.04 12.09 18.13 24.17 30.22 36.26
6 687 5.88 11.76 17.64 23.53 29.41 35.29
7 668 5.72 11.44 17.16 22.88 28.60 34.32
8 649 5.56 11.12 16.67 22.23 27.79 33.35
9 599 5.13 10.25 15.38 20.50 25.63 30.76[/code:1:d23144cb7b]

And it gets worse......

[code:1:d23144cb7b]

<599 PA Injury Location

Order PA 2,12 3,11 4,10 5,9 6,8 7
1 775 12.74 25.47 38.21 50.94 63.68 76.41
2 756 12.43 24.85 37.28 49.7 62.13 74.55
3 737 12.11 24.23 36.34 48.46 60.57 72.69
4 725 11.91 23.81 35.72 47.63 59.54 71.44
5 706 11.6 23.19 34.79 46.39 57.98 69.58
6 687 11.29 22.57 33.86 45.14 56.43 67.72
7 668 10.98 21.95 32.93 43.9 54.88 65.85
8 649 10.66 21.33 31.99 42.66 53.32 63.99
9 599 9.84 19.67 29.51 39.35 49.18 59.02

[/code:1:d23144cb7b]

I looked at the 2006 team PA by order charts for all teams then averaged them out to arrive at the projected PA's. After that it was a simple matter of getting an avg games missed from the injury charts. Then place that within the odds formula for rolls and you get a fairly accurate sketch of what is likely to happen in games missed.

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Postby MARCPELLETIER » Tue Feb 16, 2010 5:14 am

For players with less than 600 PA, 15 games is the maximum you can get, but you usually have less than that when a player gets injured. Here is the chart that TSN says it uses for players under 600 AB


1-2 Stays in game
3-4 Inj. for remainder of game
5-8 Inj. for 1 extra game
9-11 Inj. for 2 extra games
12-13 Inj. for 3 extra games
14 Inj. for 4 extra games
15 Inj. for 5 extra games
16 Inj. for 6 extra games
17 Inj. for 7 extra games
18 Inj. for 8 extra games
19 Inj. for 10 extra games
20 Inj. for 15 extra games


So following this chart, on average, you should have 3.55 injured games for every "hit" of "AB+injury", and only 1 chance out of 20 to get a 15-game injury.

Some people have said that 15-game injuries happen more frequently than 10-games or 8-games, and therefore it cannot be the case that you have only 1 chance out of 20 to have a 15-game injury. One potential explanation would be that TSN uses harsher injury penalties for players with fewer PAs, say under 250 PA or 300 PA. But as I write this, I don't feel we have any evidence that TSN does this. In fact, TSN denied it.

So that goes for the average length of an injury. As for the frequency of injury, someone like Furcal has 5 "chances" roll for every 216 PA. Assuming 4.3 PA per game, and assuming that each chance results in 3.55 injured games, I get a rough estimate of 119 healthy games per season for a player like Furcal. Indeed, averaging 40 simmed seasons, I ended up with Furcal playing 120.4 games, with the lowest number at 88 games and the highest at 142.

So my numbers, both estimated and simmed, are substantially lower than the estimates of "The Hook" or of "The biomechanical man".
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Postby MARCPELLETIER » Tue Feb 16, 2010 5:35 am

Actually, looking back at "The hook" numbers, his estimates are accurate, except that he forget to scale his numbers to actual seasons.

For example, he has it that Furcal will have 64 injured games if he leads up and has 775 PA. But of course, if he is injured 64 games, he cannot have 775 PA (this last number is possible only if a player plays all 162 games). So what his numbers are really saying is: for every 162 games that Furcal plays, Furcal will miss 64 games. Expressed differently, if seasons were to last 226 games, Furcal would play 162 games and would be injured 64 games. But seasons really last 162 games, not 226 games. So when you scale back to seasons of 162 games, then you have that Furcal will play 116 games and will be injured 46 games.

The difference between 46 games and my own estimate of 42 missed games lies in the lost AB resulting from being injured the "remainder of the game". I didn't take it in consideration, so 46 games more accurately represents the real impact of having Furcal being injured in a full season.

Bottom-line: if you assume 9 games lost for every "injury chance", you get a very accurate rough estimate of expected injured games.
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Postby apolivka » Tue Feb 16, 2010 11:12 am

Since each injury chance for a high injury risk guy is 0-15 games, there can be a HIGH amount variation between players with similar injury risk. I've gotten as many as 630 PA out of a "2 chance" injury guy, and as few as 480. Two injuries that hit on 15 games are killer.

You also might want to take into account a platoon situation. If I play a L/R platoon, I might be more likely to allow a high injury number since each guy will get less PAs, and thus will get fewer injuries than an everyday player. The guy who mostly faces lefties usually only gets about 200 PAs, so a higher injury rating hurts you much less.

Also you might want to consider an "injury platoon", where you might have, say, your lf/rf guys both be injury prone, but have a fairly expensive backup that can reliably cover. Sometimes you can do that at 2b/ss or 2b/3b as well depending on the player set and how good those backups are in the 1-2M range.
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