by **MARCPELLETIER** » Tue Feb 16, 2010 5:14 am

For players with less than 600 PA, 15 games is the maximum you can get, but you usually have less than that when a player gets injured. Here is the chart that TSN says it uses for players under 600 AB

1-2 Stays in game

3-4 Inj. for remainder of game

5-8 Inj. for 1 extra game

9-11 Inj. for 2 extra games

12-13 Inj. for 3 extra games

14 Inj. for 4 extra games

15 Inj. for 5 extra games

16 Inj. for 6 extra games

17 Inj. for 7 extra games

18 Inj. for 8 extra games

19 Inj. for 10 extra games

20 Inj. for 15 extra games

So following this chart, on average, you should have 3.55 injured games for every "hit" of "AB+injury", and only 1 chance out of 20 to get a 15-game injury.

Some people have said that 15-game injuries happen more frequently than 10-games or 8-games, and therefore it cannot be the case that you have only 1 chance out of 20 to have a 15-game injury. One potential explanation would be that TSN uses harsher injury penalties for players with fewer PAs, say under 250 PA or 300 PA. But as I write this, I don't feel we have any evidence that TSN does this. In fact, TSN denied it.

So that goes for the average length of an injury. As for the frequency of injury, someone like Furcal has 5 "chances" roll for every 216 PA. Assuming 4.3 PA per game, and assuming that each chance results in 3.55 injured games, I get a rough estimate of 119 healthy games per season for a player like Furcal. Indeed, averaging 40 simmed seasons, I ended up with Furcal playing 120.4 games, with the lowest number at 88 games and the highest at 142.

So my numbers, both estimated and simmed, are substantially lower than the estimates of "The Hook" or of "The biomechanical man".