luckyman's 2005 3B ratings

[dneedle1]

HITTERS PRICE TSN_PRICE DIFF
Youkilis 2.09 1.32 0.77
Crede,J 1.49 1.02 0.47
Macias,J+ 1.23 0.82 0.41
Jones,C+ 2.95 2.68 0.27
Blum,G+ 0.68 0.5 0.18
Burrough* 1.75 1.63 0.12
Chavez,E* 4.87 4.87 0.00
Bloomquis 0.50 0.5 0.00
Olson,T 0.50 0.5 0.00
Cirillo,J 0.50 0.5 0.00
Spiezio+ 0.50 0.5 0.00
Rolls,D 0.50 0.5 0.00
Dobbs,G* 0.50 0.5 0.00
Mordecai 0.50 0.5 0.00
Stynes,C 0.50 0.5 0.00
Green,A 0.50 0.5 0.00
Norton,G+ 0.50 0.5 0.00
Derosa,M 0.50 0.5 0.00
Larson,B 0.50 0.5 0.00
German,E 0.50 0.5 0.00
Hummel,T 0.50 0.5 0.00
Relaford+ 0.50 0.5 0.00
Halter,S 0.50 0.5 0.00
Lopez,L+ 0.50 0.5 0.00
Alfonzo,E 1.93 1.95 -0.02
Helms,W 0.50 0.54 -0.04
Hinske,E* 0.63 0.69 -0.06
Ensberg,M 1.15 1.24 -0.09
Tracy,C* 0.50 0.59 -0.09
Koskie,C* 3.99 4.1 -0.11
Munson,E* 0.50 0.67 -0.17
Quinlan,R 4.33 4.54 -0.21
Figgins+ 2.64 2.85 -0.21
Cabrera,J 1.31 1.56 -0.25
Blalock* 3.98 4.23 -0.25
Mueller+ 2.14 2.4 -0.26
Leone,J 0.50 0.77 -0.27
Randa,J 1.96 2.24 -0.28
Mora,M 7.11 7.41 -0.30
Batista,T 0.52 0.82 -0.30
Rolen,S 10.68 11.05 -0.37
Castilla 4.40 4.85 -0.45
Durringto 0.50 0.96 -0.46
Lowell,M 6.20 6.69 -0.49
Cuddyer,M 0.87 1.4 -0.53
Wigginton 0.57 1.15 -0.58
Huff,A* 2.82 3.44 -0.62
Glaus,T 3.40 4.15 -0.75
Branyan* 2.83 3.63 -0.80
Bell,D 2.47 3.29 -0.82
Ramirez,A 4.49 5.41 -0.92
Castro,J 0.50 1.48 -0.98
Wright,D 3.99 5.12 -1.13
Rodriguez 7.24 8.5 -1.26
Freel,R 1.00 2.43 -1.43
Beltre,A 8.40 10.28 -1.88
Lamb,M* 2.68 4.71 -2.03
Inge,B 0.96 3.1 -2.14
Blake,C 2.52 4.79 -2.27

[dneedle1]

Penngray has been saying the same criticsm year after year. Basically, his criticism is that to determine the real value of a player, you have to take in consideration the stadium and the line-up in which the player fits. In one sentence, his point is: Context is as important as content.


But, in the past year, there were players whose value were so off from their pricing that I felt Penngray understimated the impact of "content" value. In other words, some players were bad values, regardless of the context in which they were playing (a point that penngray rejected), and some players with good value, regardless of the stadiums and the line-ups they played in.

This year, however, I think Penngray is absolutely right.

I acknowlege bigmahon's effort to put down the ranking list of my players, but it seems to me that such list, this year, is misleading.

Take the 3b list. What you have have as superior value are:

1) players that you can platoon (Blum, Bloomquist)
2) players who walk a lot (Youkinis, Freel)
3) injury-prone players (if the back-up is one of the good bargain---Everett among ss).

Similarly, the "bad values" are everyday players with lots of hits (Beltre being the supreme example).

What this tells me is that I value walks more than TSN, but frankly, I have no idea if I am right or wrong. Besides, my value for walks isn't very much different from TSN's: it is usually only the "extreme players" such as Youkilis with high walks and low hits (or extreme players like Beltre with high hits and low walks) that get off the mark.

Beyond that, my system agrees within 0.50M with TSN for all players. 0,5M is nothing, it is well within the margin of errors.

Thus, this year, contrary to what we have seen in the past, is all about having the good line-up in the good stadium.

Here is the best example: if the ratings as calculated by bigmahon are in accordance with mine, he should have ARod as one of the worst buy in Petco, just correct in "neutral stadiums", and as one of the best buys in Coors.

So the real story of my ratings is: A-listen to penngray; adopt your line-up to your needs and stadium, and B- maximize the platoons (of course, without extending your bench to 17 players).


Jaser said:

I enjoy working up ratings and value strictly to compare same position players in a certain ballpark and playing environment (% vs L and % vs R). I think it's much tougher to try and accurately predict a "team event" through individual player ratings.

That said, a good rating system takes context and applies it to the content. The main variable contexts for any Strat team is the home ballpark, the % chances vs lefty and righty and to a lesser exten, your divisional ballparks.

All of these contexts can easily be applied to a "neutral" rating system to provide actual content within the context.

ARod's card will be best in a hitter's park vs a pitchers park based on the raw data...but how does that production variance compare to another SS under the same circumstances...or other positions in the same circumstance. How does it compare if you only have 2 lefty SP's in your Division? Are you better off spending $8.5 million for ARod at SS and a $2.5 million 3B or a $5.5 million player at each position?

IMO, the fact that there is much more pricing parity this year puts extra emphasis on making educated decisions within your context because the obvious low $ values (regradless of park) aren't there...but they do exist in each varying context.

All that said, I must also say this...I'm not wearing any pants!